Abstract
Epidemiological models are powerful tools for evaluating scenarios and visualizing patterns of disease spread, especially when comparing intervention strategies. However, the technical skill required to synthesize and operate computational models frequently renders them beyond the command of the stakeholders who are most impacted by the results. Participatory modelling (PM) strives to restructure the power relationship between modellers and the stakeholders who rely on model insights by involving these stakeholders directly in model development and application; yet, a systematic literature review indicates little adoption of these techniques in epidemiology, especially plant epidemiology. We investigate the potential for PM to integrate stakeholder and researcher knowledge, using Phytophthora ramorum and the resulting sudden oak death disease as a case study. Recent introduction of a novel strain (European 1 or EU1) in southwestern Oregon has prompted significant concern and presents an opportunity for coordinated management to minimize regional pathogen impacts. Using a PM framework, we worked with local stakeholders to develop an interactive forecasting tool for evaluating landscape-scale control strategies. We find that model co-development has great potential to empower stakeholders in the design, development and application of epidemiological models for disease control.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.
Highlights
On the 100th year anniversary of the Spanish flu pandemic, there is a need to reflect on how well epidemiological models, a fundamental tool of disease research, meet the needs of stakeholders involved with the day-to-day control of emerging outbreaks
Within the broader context of participatory research, we focus on two subdisciplines related to epidemiological modelling: participatory modelling (PM) and participatory epidemiology (PE)
PM, which integrates these diverse perspectives throughout model development, encourages collaborative learning and empowers stakeholders to interact more directly with models [15 –17,24]
Summary
On the 100th year anniversary of the Spanish flu pandemic, there is a need to reflect on how well epidemiological models, a fundamental tool of disease research, meet the needs of stakeholders involved with the day-to-day control of emerging outbreaks. Reasons commonly cited for this knowledge–practice gap include: (i) models do not address stakeholder concerns, (ii) outputs cannot be clearly translated into policy or intervention, (iii) processes are explained poorly and/or are too esoteric, (iv) assumptions are considered invalid, and (v) models lack intuitive interfaces that facilitate stakeholder use [7,10,11,15,16,17,18]. Coordinated management to curb disease spread could reduce economic consequences from the quarantine of nursery and forestry products in surrounding counties [9,31,34] Both in our example, and in epidemiology broadly, modelling tools can help stakeholders address critical questions regarding where management will be most effective, when eradication becomes implausible, and if the pathogen is likely to escape quarantine. This case study of model co-development illustrates the potential benefits of PM to empower stakeholders in the design, development and application of epidemiological models for disease control
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