Abstract
Energy security is of key importance for states and international organizations. An important issue in energy security is the assessment of current and future energy security methods. While the assessment of the current methods is relatively easy, since it is based on recent information, the assessment of the future methods is burdened with uncertainty and is therefore much more difficult. Therefore, the aim of the article is to develop a new approach for assessing current and future energy security issues based on a complex security index, supported by the computationally transparent fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. The use of the fuzzy MCDA methods allows one to capture the uncertainty of assessments and forecasts, and the forecasts themselves were based on the Holt’s method; the international energy security risk index (IESRI) was used as the source of the data to generate the forecasts. The research compared two data sources for forecasts (IESRI categories and metrics) and two methods of forecast fuzzification. As a result, the forecasted assessments and rankings of energy security for the 2020–2030 period were obtained. On the basis of these forecasts, general trends shaping energy security were also indicated.
Highlights
The methodological approach proposed in the article is based on four foundations: data available in the International Index of Energy Security Risk report [36], Holt’s forecasting method [37], fuzzy set theory [38], and the fuzzy weighted sum method (FWSM) [39]
international energy security risk index (IESRI) is a complex indicator that measures threats to energy security in relation to the base average of countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
The first was to use metrics used by IESRI
Summary
Energy security is a fundamental condition for sustainable development, which is a goal pursued by all countries in the world. Analyzing the situation, forecasting, and making decisions in this area is of interest to researchers who propose various measures and conduct numerous studies, striving to obtain reliable measurements and interpretable results. It is important since the obtained results can be used by decision-makers to make responsible decisions. Energy is an important factor contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals, since energy consumption is necessary for economic, environmental, and social reasons [4]
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