Forecasting analysis of COVID-19 cases in eastern Visayas, Philippines

Abstract

The disease caused by the novel coronavirus was named by the World Health Organization as COVID-19. COVID-19 has a basic reproduction number of 2 – 2.5, indicating that two to three people will contract the virus from a single patient. The first case in the Philippines was reported on January 30, 2020 when a Chinese woman arrived via Hong Kong from Wuhan, China. Her male companion died a few days later, the first known death outside of China. The Eastern Visayas region of the Philippines also felt the impact of the virus and had community-level transmissions. In this study, the researchers used ARIMA to forecast the COVID-19 cases of the provinces/cities in the region, namely, Biliran, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Tacloban City, and Ormoc City, from September 5, 2021 to October 30, 2021. The dataset for this study where the official COVID-19 cases dataset from March 1, 2020 to October 30, 2020 provided by the Regional Epidemiology & Surveillance Unit of the Department of Health (DOH) – Eastern Visayas Center for Health and Development. Based on the results, it was found that all provinces/cities will have different developments in their COVID-19 cases. The results can be used in making strategic decisions in terms of planning, managing, procuring facilities, and other relevant mechanisms to address COVID-19 and similar healthcare operations in time of the pandemic.