Forecasting air passenger demand with a new hybrid ensemble approach

Abstract

Analyzing and modeling passenger demand dynamic, which has important implications on the management and the operation in the entire aviation industry, are deemed to be a tough challenge. Air passenger demand, however, exhibits consistently complex non-linearity and non-stationarity. To capture more precisely the aforementioned complex behavior, this paper proposes a hybrid approach VMD-ARMA/KELM-KELM for the short-term forecasting, which consists of variational mode decomposition (VMD), autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). First, VMD is adopted to decompose the original data into several mode functions so as to reduce their complexity. Then, the unit root test (ADF test) is employed to classify all the modes into the stable and unstable series. Meanwhile, the ARMA and the KELM models are used to forecast both the stationary and non-stationary components, respectively. Lastly, the final result is integrated by another KELM model incorporating the forecasting results of all components. In order to prove and verify the feasibility and robustness of the proposed approach, the passenger demands of Beijing, Guangzhou and Pudong airports are introduced to test the performance. Also, the experimental results show that the novel approach does have a more obviously advantage than other benchmark models regarding both accuracy and robustness analysis. Therefore, this approach can be utilized as a convincing tool for the air passenger demand forecasting.