Forecasting a scenario of the fresh tomato market in Italy and in Germany using the Delphi method

Abstract

PurposeThe research presented in this paper aims at giving a forecasting scenario of the fresh tomato industry in Italy and in Germany, through the analysis of the different drivers which influence the trends of the fresh tomato market.Design/methodology/approachThe Delphi method was applied in order to obtain judgments of different experts regarding the driving forces of the fresh tomato industry in Italy and in Germany. A total of 14 experts of the fresh vegetables market participated in a three‐rounds survey; a qualitative analysis of experts' judgments drew to a possible future of the fresh tomato industry.FindingsFrom the results it is possible to conclude that the service in the offer of the products will mostly influence the trend of the fresh tomato industry; this includes marketing, communication, quality certifications, special packaging (as ready to eat products). Furthermore variety selection and typicality of the product will play, as well, a fundamental role in the market trend of the fresh tomato.Research limitations/implicationsThe research is based on a small sample of experts, using a qualitative approach. Therefore these findings may strongly depend on the choice of the subjects.Practical implicationsThe results may offer useful suggestions to managers and practitioners on the most promising strategies for the future.Originality/valueOn the methodological side, this study represents a useful contribution to qualitative food research, since the Delphi method approach was rarely used in the past. In addition, it has not been previously used in forecasting a possible scenario in the fresh vegetables industry.