Forecast the Role of GCC Financial Stress on Oil Market and GCC Financial Markets Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Abstract

This study aims to predict GCC financial stress on oil market, and GCC Stock and bond markets while considering the effect of the 2008 financial crisis, 2014 oil drop price and the 2019 novel COVID-19 outbreak. For this purpose, we use a new approach for predicting the financial stress, based on the One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN). This article introduces a parameters optimization method, which provides the best parameters for 1D-CNN to improve the prediction performance of the financial stress indices. The results suggest that indexes of financial stress help to improve forecasting performance. It implies that the 1D-CNN model shows a better predictive performance in the out-of-sample findings.Regarding the influence of financial stress on hedging between Brent, and financial markets, the outcomes emphasize the role of oil in hedging stock market risks in positive market stress case. Another interesting result is that the out-of-sample estimates for stock–bond markets, hedging with oil have higher variability for negative (positive) financial stress. The findings highlight the predictive information captured by financial stress in accurately forecasting oil market volatility and financial markets, offering a valuable opening for investors to monitor oil market volatility using information on traded assets.