Forecast Overview

Abstract

We have revised up our forecasts for GDP growth in 2015 and 2016 to 3% and 2.8% respectively, from 2.7% and 2.5% three months ago. This follows the plunge in the oil price, which will push inflation sharply lower and boost household spending power. It is unlikely that the MPC will consider raising interest rates while inflation is very low, so we have also pushed back our forecast for the first rate hike from Q3 2015 to Q1 2016…