Abstract
Though GDP rose by 0.2% in November, this came on the back of a poor run and, with July’s surge dropping out of the calculation, the rolling three‐month rate slowed to a six‐month low of 0.3%. The business survey data has also flagged a loss of momentum, with the Q4 composite PMI at its lowest level since Q3 2016. Based on past form, the PMI would be consistent with virtual stagnation in GDP in Q4, but our short‐term model points to a slightly firmer outturn of 0.3%. This would mean that 2018 as a whole saw GDP growth of 1.4%, 0.1pp higher than our forecast from three months ago, which reflects favourable historical revisions published in the Q3 national accounts release.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
