Abstract
A run of stronger data through Q2 has led us to raise our forecast for 2014 GDP growth to 3.1% from 3% in April. The economy has moved from recovery mode into the expansion phase, with growth continuing to broaden out. However, improved growth prospects mean that the Bank of England is likely to start raising interest rates from November, with the earlier rate hike increasing the chances that the consumer will slow down next year…
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