Forecast of the State and Management of Bioresources of the Volga Basin

Abstract

In the article, the authors give a brief description of EIS REGION, designed to build predictive models of changes in the parameters of biological resources of territories from environmental factors and anthropogenic impacts. On the example of a large region (the Volga basin), a forecast of changes in primary biological productivity under conditions of global climate warming was carried out using EIS REGION. Some variants of influence on bioproductivity of anthropogenic pollution and the level of economic development of the subjects of the region are considered. The authors that in conditions of climate change with an increasing thermal trend, an increase in the primary biological productivity is predicted for all-natural zones of the Volga basin. In this regard, we specifically forecast that an increase in temperature and a decrease in climate humidity will relatively favourably affect the ecosystems of the taiga zone- a zone of lack of heat and excess moisture. The predicted climate change will be less favourable for the forest-steppe and steppe zones, since an even greater climate aridization is expected here.