FORECAST OF THE REFORMATION OF THE KRASNOYARSK RESERVOIR COASTAL ZONE IN THE KURTAK VILLAGE

Abstract

The article presents the analysis and prediction of coastal processes at the site of the Krasnoyarsk reservoir in the village of Kurtak where there are the most intensive processes of coastal reshaping. Over the past 50 years, the coast has receded here by an average of 350 m and continues to actively collapse at a speed of 3-5 m per year. Despite the fact that the intensity of coastal processes in this area has significantly decreased (mainly due to the general decrease in the level of the Krasnoyarsk reservoir), the rate of retreat of the shore is still high. However, it can be concluded that for the researched area the coastal reshaping does not pose a real threat to economic activity in the next 30 years. The article tested various methods of forecasting coastal processes, selected the most appropriate for the shores of a similar type. Verification of models was carried out on the basis of data of long-term monitoring of the site under consideration, which gave the chance to compare results of forecasts on different techniques to real retreat of the coast on this site.