Forecast of the Number of Researchers in the Russian Federation by 2024

Abstract

The article analyzes the possibility of reaching the benchmark of 400 thousand researchers by 2024, which was publicly announced by the Minister of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation. This goal can be reached when implementing the Federal Project ≪Development of Human Resources in the Field of Research and Development≫, as part of the National Project ≪Science≫. The article provides links to the statements of the Minister on this topic. The analysis is based on the results of the authors’ research in the fields of science and education, official data on population and employment from reference books and yearbooks of the Federal State Statistics Service, as well as from statistical handbooks of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. In this study, the authors used forecasting methods. The authors examine the place of researchers on the domestic labor market as a qualitatively relevant link within the working population segment and characterize the measures of countries, that as well as Russia are the members of the BRICS, to increase the share of researchers. Study of foreign experience led the authors to deem it necessary to increase wages of this group of specialists (for example, in the BRICS countries the ratio of the average salary of researchers and the average salary of the entire working population is 3-5 to 1), while in modern Russia employees with scientific degree are not valued enough. Findings of rating agencies that there is a low interest among Russian employers in hiring employees with a scientific degree support the authors’ conclusions. The article raises the question of creating real motivational mechanisms for a notable increase in the share of researchers in the workforce to execute the strategic goal of improving the quality of economic growth and the welfare of the population.