Forecast of the Maximal Flow for the Caucasus Black Sea Coast Rivers

Abstract

Methods of the maximum river flow forecasting of the Mzymta, Sochi, Zapadnyi Dagomys, Kuapse, Tuapse and Vulan rivers have been developed in order to prevent the flood risk on the rivers of the Black Sea coast. Approach of sufficiently accurate and efficient forecasting of maximum discharges and water levels with a lead time of one day has been developed on the basis of a hydrological model of snowmelt and rainfall runoff formation. A scheme for the computation of daily critical precipitation amount at the meteorological stations causing the exceeding with a given probability of critical flow rates and water levels during the expected day was proposed. Techniques of dangerous flooding probability computation during the next day and next five days depending on the initial hydro/meteorological data available on the forecast issue date of hydro/meteorological information have been developed. The proposed methods can be implemented in the operational automated flood forecasting system and used for warning of dangerous floods on the rivers of the Black Sea coast.