Forecast of the Impact of the Railway Container Transportation Market on the GDP of the Russian Federation

Abstract

The relevance and practical significance of the is caused by pervasive impact of container transportation on the economy of the Russian Federation, which is reflected in the State strategy for the development of the transport industry. Expansion of the network of multimodal transport and logistics hubs for handling container cargo should increase their capacity, ensure the growth of transit cargo and the inflow of private Russian and foreign investments in rail transport. The purpose of the research is to develop a forecast for the rail container transportation market in the Russian Federation and estimate its impact on GDPusing mathematical and statistical tools based on publicly available information base. The research methodology included the following stages: industry analysis, identification of trends and their assessment; development of a regression model for market forecasting, taking into account the identified factors and information available in the public domain; assessment of the impacts of factors on GDP; taking into account the development risks of the rail container transportation market. Industry analysis, a systematic approach and graphical methods were used to refine the methodology for forecasting the container transportation market by rail in the Russian Federation. The article shows that the key factors influencing the forecast of the development of the rail container transportation market are: advantages over other modes of transport in speed, quality, convenience and cost of cargo delivery; growth of containerization cargo base; transit prospects for developed and developing countries. Based on the data of Rosstat and PJSC Russian Railways, the regression model was built for the dependence of the volume of the Russian Federation’s GDP on the dynamics of the rail container transportation market, which allowed to predict the increase of GDP by 2025 compared to 2022 by 20.4% due to the growth of the rail container market, in in particular, due to imports by 55.2%, due to exports by 77.8%, and transit through the Russian Federation by 101.3%. The practical significance of the study is to assess of industry trends and risks in the short and medium-term implementation of the development strategy for the transport industry of the Russian Federation, which allows to substantiate the investment attractiveness of the industry.