Forecast of the Dynamics of a Sandy Beach in Complexed Hydrodynamic Conditions

Abstract

Changes in the coastal zone under the influence of currents of different nature and wind waves are being investigated. A sandy beach located in the water area of the “Park of the 300th Anniversary of St. Petersburg”, the Neva Bay of the Gulf of Finland of the Baltic Sea, is considered as an object. The beach is actively affected by wind waves and eventually washes away with the intensity of the retreat of the shore of about 4 m per year. For numerical modeling, a set of models is used: SWAN–wind-wave model and COASTOX-UN–a two-dimensional model of currents, sediment transport and bottom reformation. It was developed a model of the Neva Bay and the mouth of the Neva River from the Flood Prevention Facility Complex in the west to the river Neva near the Liteiny Bridge in the east. Based on the reanalysis of wind data, 36 strong storms were selected for a five-year period from 2014 to 2018, for the sequence of which numerical modeling of waves, currents and lithodynamic processes was carried out. It was obtained balances of alluvial and washouts after a ten-years simulated period for beach sectors. To verify the results, satellite images of the modeling area are used, it was found that the model adequately describes the main observed trends in the development of the beach.