Forecast of the Change Tendency of Sea Ice Extent in Liaodong Bay

Abstract

Since massive sea ice occurs in the sea area of Liaodong Bay area, sea ice products are greatly demanded by offshore drilling platforms, marine transportation and coastal aquaculture. It is imperative to develop from sea ice monitoring to live + forecast of development tendency. An one-month latency response can be found between the maximum sea ice extent and the minimum average temperature as per their relationship. Hence, analysis on the latency correlation has been conducted through constructing sea ice tendency forecasting models for the sea ice developing and melting stages. According to the result, the negative accumulated temperature is a favorable forecasting factor since sea ice in Liaodong Bay is affected by the accumulated change of previous temperature factor. Besdies, the sea ice extent is significantly correlated with the accumulated freezing temperature of ≤-2°C in the sea ice developing stage. And in the melting stage, the average maximum temperature of 11 days has the most significant correlation. What’s more, as the accumulated temperature change rate is similar to the fluctuation of curve of the sea ice extent, the accuracy of the forecast model is climbed to 79% upon studying the relationship between the difference and the accumulated temperature change rate of the forecast model and the sea ice monitoring extent.