Forecast of temporal variations in some road condition variables

Abstract

The article considers issues of forecasting temporal variations in the condition of roads. The road condition is affected by external factors against the background of internal processes, occurring in construction layers. Most mathematical models, forecasting the service life of roads, are developed on the basis of strength characteristics, which, in conditions of limited financing of regional and local significance roads, leads to certain difficulties in their practical application. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a model of variations in the condition of road pavements based on data about their consumer properties, such as evenness, adhesion coefficient and pavement condition. The process of reducing the evenness values, pavement condition, and adhesion coefficient over time can be described using the Weibull distribution. The paper presents mathematical models of temporal variations in the condition of the road pavement, adhesion coefficient and longitudinal evenness. The data of the model and annual road diagnostics, compared for assessing the model effectiveness, demonstrated high convergence. The proposed approach to assessing the variations in the pavement condition, evenness and adhesion coefficient makes it possible to increase the efficiency of managing the road condition.