Abstract
The share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the end use of energy in the UE will increase from the present level of about 25% to 50 % in 2030 according to the assumptions of the European Commission. In Poland the RES Act was passed in 2015. The act defines mechanisms and instruments for supporting the production of electricity and heat from renewable energy sources. Statistics (2003–2014) of electricity generation and heat production from RES in Poland were used in the research. Because of amendments to regulations connected with promoting RES and the emissions trading system (ETS) as well as the uncertainty associated with further directions of the energy and environmental policy, generation of electricity and heat based on the use of RES must be modelled while taking risk into account. A number of dynamic processes incorporating random events may be modelled by stochastic equations using Ito calculus. By applying Euler’s method to solve stochastic differential equations (SDE), it is possible to simulate the development of the use of renewable energy carriers in electricity generation and heat production in the future.
Highlights
Current interest in renewable energy sources (RES) is largely due to the targets of the EU policy on energy generation and environment [1], but it results from the fact that conventional energy sources, such as coal, oil and natural gas are running out [8, 10]
A comparison between the RES structure in 2003 and in 2014 indicates considerable changes as well: renewable energy obtained from solid biomass and wind significantly increased with the share of hydropower decreasing, despite the fact that the total volume of energy generated by hydroelectric plants increased by over 20%
This variant includes two components: deterministic and random: dXt A t dt V t dWt, (2). Another variant is the model of relative variation in the state variable with a random component represented by geometric Brownian motion (GBM): dXt B t Xt dt V t Xt dWt, (3)
Summary
Current interest in renewable energy sources (RES) is largely due to the targets of the EU policy on energy generation and environment [1], but it results from the fact that conventional energy sources, such as coal, oil and natural gas are running out [8, 10]. By using locally available sources, renewable energy boosts development of distributed power generation. Polish coal in the future and to predict a development of RES. This in turn implies that the energy market, including the power market, will be undergoing transformation. Utilizing RES is at the moment the key point of all the activities aimed to reduce emissions in electrical energy generation and consumption of fossil fuels, especially coal and lignite. Due to EU policies promoting RES [1] and imposing the emission trading system (ETS), renewable energy is becoming increasingly popular as a target of future investments. The most important mechanism for supporting renewable energy producers in Poland was the system of energy certificates and sales tax exemption. The amendment of the act on renewable energy passed on the 1st of July 2016 introduced new rules of settling accounts with prosumers by means of discounts, taking into account the balance between energy input into the grid, energy consumed and energy stored by a prosumer in the period of one year
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