Forecast of Population Size and Demographic Burden in Russia up to 2100.

Abstract

—The article presents basic approaches to substantiating the hypotheses of fertility, mortality, and migration in Russia in the long term. The main results of the multivariate demographic development of Russia until 2100, which combines 30 different combinations of demographic processes, are analyzed. It is shown that the population will decline under most scenarios, including the most probable medium scenario – up to 137.5 million people by the end of the century. In the short term until the early 2030s, all options show an increase in the demographic load, and in the longer term it alternatively decreases and increases with different intensity time and again. The most favorable scenarios with high fertility and life expectancy and low migration growth put the greatest pressure on the working-age population due to the higher number of births and the elderly in these scenarios.