Forecast of Malignant Peritoneal Mesothelioma Mortality in Italy up to 2040.

Enrico Oddone,Giada Minelli,Jordy Bollon,Corrado Magnani,Consuelo Rubina Nava,Marcello Imbriani,Alessandro Marinaccio,Dario Consonni,Francesco Barone-Adesi

doi:10.3390/ijerph18010160

Abstract

Despite their differences, pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma are frequently lumped together to describe epidemic curves and to forecast future mesothelioma trends. This study aims to describe the malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) epidemic in Italy (1996–2016) and to forecast future trends up to 2040 in order to contribute to the assessment of MPeM future burden. All MPeM deaths in Italy from 1996–2016 were collected (as provided by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT)) in order to estimate MPeM mortality rates for each 3-year period from 1996 to 2016. Poisson age-period-cohort (APC) models were then used to forecast MPeM future trends. Between 2017 and 2040, 1333 MPeM deaths are expected. The number of MPeM deaths, as well as mortality rates, are expected to constantly decrease throughout the considered period. Based on considering the information from this study, it can be concluded that the MPeM epidemic has probably already reached its peak in Italy.

Highlights

Peritoneum is the second most frequent site of malignant mesothelioma following the pleura
4.5% of mesothelioma deaths in the period 1994–2008 were due to Malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM), with an age-adjusted mortality rate of 0.3 per million and a M:F ratio of 1.6:1, while the same ratio in pleural mesothelioma was 3.7:1 [2]
Our study evaluated the evolution of the MPeM epidemic in Italy, providing both obOur study evaluated the evolution of (2017–2040)

Summary

Introduction

Peritoneum is the second most frequent site of malignant mesothelioma following the pleura. Malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) has some peculiar features differentiating it from the pleural form [1], such as a lower male to female (M:F) ratio and a lower mean age at death (66 years) [2]. MPeM age-standardized incidence rates vary widely across different countries, generally ranging from 0.5 to about 3 cases per million population in men [3]. 4.5% of mesothelioma deaths in the period 1994–2008 were due to MPeM, with an age-adjusted mortality rate of 0.3 per million and a M:F ratio of 1.6:1, while the same ratio in pleural mesothelioma was 3.7:1 [2]. Despite the clinical and epidemiological differences, pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma are often either lumped together to describe epidemic curves and to forecast overall mesothelioma trends, or MPeM cases are dropped and estimations are carried out based

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Conclusion