Forecast of geomagnetic and solar activity on nonlocal correlations

Abstract

The article is devoted to the experimental study ofthe possibility of long-term forecasting of a randomcomponent of geomagnetic and solar activity on thebase of macroscopic nonlocality effect. The forecastingalgorithm, employing the nonlocal correlation detectormeasurements, is suggested. Its efficiency is proved ondata of the long-term experiments in the regime of realforecast simulation with advancement up to fourmonths. All methods employed at present of the fore-cast of geomagnetic activity operate with its compo-nents determined by external factors and its own evolu-tion (even if statistical approaches are used). However,a random (spontaneous) component is rather essentialbecause the forecasted system is complicated in a syn-ergetic sense, the typical feature of which is instabilitycaused by the trajectory divergence in the phase space.It is not very important for the short-term geomagneticforecast, because the external factors, i.e., the solaractivity and interplanetary medium state, are alreadygiven by the observations. Therefore, the unpredictabil-ity of many of the solar activity manifestations, e.g.,flares, is not important. However, for the long-termgeomagnetic forecasts, which are explicitly or implic-itly based on the solar activity forecast, the randomcomponent is comparable with the determined one (andexceeds it for catastrophic events). Thus, the impossi-bility of taking into account the random componentdegrades the accessible accuracy and advancement ofthe forecast. The recently discovered effect of macro-scopic nonlocality gives a basic possibility of the ran-dom component forecast. This effect, the nature ofwhich apparently consists in persisting of correlationsof the entangled states formed by the dissipative pro-cesses [1, 2] at the macro-level [3], is manifested in cor-relations of any dissipative process without any localcarriers. The equation of macroscopic nonlocality [4–7]based on transactional interpretation of the nonlocalcorrelations [8] relates the entropy productions in theprobe-process and source-process with symmetricalretardation and advancement. It means for random pro-cesses the possibility of observation of unusualadvanced correlations of the random processes. More-over, owing to the lower efficiency of absorption of theWheeler–Feynman advanced electromagnetic field bythe intermediate medium [9], the advanced correlationsmay exceed retarded ones. In wide series of geophysi-cal experiments [4–7, 9–14], these peculiarities of mac-roscopic nonlocal correlations have been reliably con-firmed. As the detectors, the lab probe spontaneous pro-cesses were used under conditions of exclusion of allpossible local impacts (temperature variations and soon). Most data have been acquired with detectors basedon the spontaneous variation process of self-potentialsof weakly polarized electrodes in an electrolyte (thetheory of detectors, their design, and parameters aredescribed in [4–6, 10]). The most interesting resultswere obtained in study of relationship of the probe-pro-cesses with various helio-geophysical processes with abig random component, especially geomagnetic (char-acterized by the