Forecast of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by road transport in Russia up to 2050

Abstract

The authors make a forecast for the base (inertial), innovative and decarbonization (“1.5 degrees”) scenarios related to the Russian motor vehicle fleet using the IPCC methodology (Tiers 1–3), EMEP/EEA and other methods with account for the following factors: demographic changes, economy transition from a resource-based to a low-carbon model of development, changes in the motorization level as well as in the number of fleet vehicles and the vehicle fleet structure in terms of power unit and (energy) types and the intensity of their use, identified trends of changes in the number, energy efficiency, and eco-friendliness of passenger cars, trucks, and buses with different power units (gasoline-, diesel-, gas- or electrically-powered, hybrid) as a result of the implementation of advanced materials, information, telecommunications or logistics technologies, and mobility management. It is expected that the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel reaching a maximum in 2030–2035, may decrease by 2050 in comparison with 2015 under the innovative scenario by 5.4 times and 12%, respectively, and under the “1.5 degrees” scenario — by 13.6 times and 1.7 times. In the given period, according to the innovative scenario, natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 6.2 times. However, if the “1.5 degrees” scenario is implemented, the consumption of natural gas as a motor fuel may stop by 2050. At the same time, natural gas can be used for the production of environmentally friendly motor fuel — hydrogen, as well as electric energy for electric vehicles. The total gross greenhouse gas emissions of the motor vehicle fleet may reach a maximum in 2030 (194 million tons of CO 2 ) but then they will decrease by 2050 according to the inertial scenario to 189.5 million tons, the innovative scenario — to 142.6 million tons and the “1.5 degrees” scenario — to 103.1 million tons of CO 2 . If the “1.5 degrees” scenario is implemented, in 2050, direct greenhouse gas emissions from the combustion of petroleum motor fuels by the motor vehicle fleet will be almost 2 times less than indirect CO 2 emissions from the combustion of natural gas at thermal power plants in the production of electric energy for electric vehicles. It is expected that if the Russian economy and transport switch to a low-carbon development path, decarbonization of the vehicle fleet can be achieved after 2054.