Abstract
“Time series analysis” is one of the main tools to predict the value of economic variable with the appropriate model to describe the time variation of historical data. “Scenario planning” is a kind of special research method which is used to analyze the macro environment of a subject. In the prediction of the growth trend of economic entities, the two methods can be used to a certain extent to avoid the prediction errors caused by environmental changes. The results showed that the economic growth of Shenzhen during “the 13th Five-Year Plan” would appear a slowing trend.
Highlights
Since Adam Smith, the economic growth has been a hot topic in economics circles, and an important constituent of main-stream economics
It is helpful to government’s reasonable prediction of economic situation and establishing of economy development strategy that combining mathematics and computer technology to make scientific and precise qualitative and quantitative prediction result for trend of economic growth, it is of great practical meaning to use scientific and proven methods to predict GDP development trend of a certain economy in future [2]
What status and trend have Shenzhen economic growth presented and what is the future trend on earth? It is a question of concern
Summary
Since Adam Smith, the economic growth has been a hot topic in economics circles, and an important constituent of main-stream economics. Wang Yue used ARMA model periodic analysis and analysis on contribution rate of economic growth to predict actual GDP of Shanghai during the period of “12th five-year plan” through building statistical model and empirical analysis [16]. The paper uses existing research technique for reference and to improve the method, takes Shenzhen as an example to analyze actuality foundation of economic growth, and subjects the Gross National Product of Shenzhen in 1978 to 2014 to modeling research, establishes autoregressive model of Shenzhen GDP, uses B-J (Box-Jenkins) method to identify the models and determine model’s order, fit, lastly introduces scenario analysis method to get mid and longer term quantitative measurement and qualitative analysis result for economy gross and growth rate in Shenzhen, so as to provide a scientific and reasonable reference for decision-making of “13th five-year planning” by related departments
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