Forecast of climate change impact on habitat suitability of Linaria uralensis Kotov (Scrophulariaceae) in the Southern Urals

Abstract

Rare plant species are the most vulnerable components of vegetation cover under climate change. The aim of this paper was to model the influence of climatic changes on the habitat suitability for Linaria uralensis Kotov in the Southern Urals. The MaxEnt program was used for modeling. Climate variables from CHELSA BIOCLIM and topographic variables of the digital elevation model were used as predictors. An ensemble of four future climate models under the RCP4.5 (moderate) and RCP8.5 (high) climate change scenarios was used to estimate potential changes in habitat suitability in the middle and second half of the 21st century. The modeling results showed that the species L. uralensis has a fairly high drought tolerance. The habitat conditions of this species will potentially be preserved in the area of its current distribution. Under moderate and high climate change some increase in the areas of high and medium habitat suitability is expected. Thus, it can be predicted that existing protection measures for this species will be sufficient, and there will be no need for additional conservation measures.