Abstract
ABSTRACTNuclear-powered Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBNs) remain the mainstay of credible nuclear deterrence. Owing to the limited information emerging from China, even the number of SSBNs in service with the PLA Navy at present remains an estimate. Projections or forecasts of Chinese SSBN force levels in the next 10–20 years are therefore speculative and widely deviating. Based on the analysis of China’s professed nuclear policy, possible SSBN deployment patterns, and developing shipyard infrastructure, this paper assesses the capacity as well as perceived requirement of Chinese SSBNs. Accordingly, the author offers forecasts for SSBN force levels by 2030 and by 2040. Likely technological developments and characteristics of the next-generation Type 096 SSBN are also predicted.
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