Forecast of Changes in Air Temperatures and Heat Indices in the Sevastopol Region in the 21st Century and Their Impacts on Viticulture

Elena Vyshkvarkova,Evgeniy Rybalko

doi:10.3390/agronomy11050954

Abstract

Climate is a limiting factor in viticulture, as it defines favorable areas, grape cultivars, and agrotechnical activities. In the Sevastopol region, viticulture is the main and promising agricultural branch. Using the outputs of the regional climate models from the CORDEX project, the projections of agroclimatic conditions in the Sevastopol region for two future periods (2021–2045 and 2046–2070) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were obtained. The results in our study show the trend of temperature indices rise (average growing season temperature, effective heat sum, Winkler and Huglin indices) and the region’s transition to higher classes, especially during the second future period (2046–2070). However, despite the higher temperature indices, the Sevastopol region will remain suitable for the growing of grapes cultivars with all ripening periods.

Highlights

Introduction and Their Impacts on ViticultureClimate has a great impact on the vineyard productivity [1,2]
The purpose of this study is to provide predictive estimates for future change of climatic conditions at various representative pathways of greenhouse gases emission (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for two future periods (2021–2045 and 2046–2070) with the use of ensemble projections of eight regional climatic models
The Sevastopol region is located in the southwest of the Crimean peninsula (Figure 1)

Summary

Introduction

Introduction and Their Impacts on ViticultureClimate has a great impact on the vineyard productivity [1,2]. The forecasted reduction in precipitation and a higher evapotranspiration rate due to a warm climate will probably cause the increased demand for water In such regions as Greece (located in a warmer part of the Mediterranean Basin), a need may arise to move vineyards to the locations of higher elevation depending on the global warming rate and range [15]. Wine making in Greece and Croatia is expected to experience additional pressure because of the shift of the grapes ripening phase toward warmer summer days. This could negatively affect the composition of grapes and, eventually, the wine quality [16,17]. High-quality territories for viticulture will significantly extend to the north of Western and Central Europe [12,18,19,20,21,22,23]

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Conclusion