Forecast of biosphere dynamics using small-scale models

Abstract

The biosphere-climate system, inside which we are all living, is subjected to different influences (influx of anthropogenic CO2 and pollutants, deforestation, harmful land management, etc.). There are reasons to consider the well-known change in global parameters (atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, distribution of precipitation, soil erosion, etc.) as the result of these influences. It will be recalled that in Chapter 2 we discussed the fact that Kirill Kondratyev was critical of the fact that, while computer models of the climate could predict future climatic conditions on the basis of gradual change, they were most unlikely to be able to predict sudden catastrophic changes in climate. Therefore, the vital question arises: “Can changes in the various global parameters lead to irreversible negative changes in the climate-biosphere system or a global ecological catastrophe?” The possibility of irreversible changes may be not very high, but one cannot ignore it. So, the main aim of this chapter is to take irreversible changes into consideration. Kondratyev also argued that the global carbon cycle was not well enough understood or studied in enough detail. As well as addressing these issues, we shall discuss some experimental results on microecosystems as well in this chapter.