Abstract
The electricity needs of populations in Cameroon are increasing and are still very inadequate. Companies, public buildings and households are facing frequent blackout which constrain development and social well-being. Therefore, the present work tried to forecast the electricity demand in the residential sector in Cameroon, in order to contribute significantly to the mastery of electricity consumption and highlight decision-makers in this sector. Six macroeconomics parameters covering the period 1994-2014 are used for these issues. Stationarity tests within gross domestic product, gross domestic product per capita, electricity consumption, population and numbers of subscribers and households respectively; reveal that all the series are I(1). Thus, the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model has been retained to forecast the electricity demand until 2020. The cusum test and the cusum of squared test attest the stability of that model with a margin of error of 0.02%. Previsions are then more reliable and show that the electric request will skip from 1721 GWh in 2014 to more than 2481 GWh in 2020 approximatively, following a growing yearly rate of 5.36%. In order to reach its emergence, Cameroon ought to speed up its production in the domain of hydroelectric and thermal grid in order to meet the requirements in electric power in short and long term.
Highlights
Unit Root Test We mainly find here, the Dickey Fuller (DF) test, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and the Phillips-Peron test, which rest on the estimation with ordinary least square of the tree equations system (4)
One notes that the P-value associated to the ADF and PP tests on the consumption parameter y is higher than the critical grade α = 5%
This work aimed at making an effective and reliable forecasting of the residential sector for electricity demand in Cameroon following a multilinear approach. This was in order to give new lights to the decision makers of the electricity sector and to guide their decisions
Summary
The articulations of the document of strategy for growth and employment show clearly that Cameroon inexorably comes within the scope of policy of development omnidirectional of sectors of activities. This development is without ambiguity subjected to a large demand of electricity [3]. Despite the country is the second hydroelectric potential owner in sub-Saharan Africa after the Democratic Republic of Congo, the lack of electricity in our industries causes the loss of production of more the 12 million USD per year [4]
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