Forecast Evaluation in the Presence of Unobserved Volatility#

Abstract

A number of volatility forecasting studies have led to the perception that the ARCH- and Stochastic Volatility-type models provide poor out-of-sample forecasts of volatility. This is primarily based on the use of traditional forecast evaluation criteria concerning the accuracy and the unbiasedness of forecasts. In this paper we provide an analytical assessment of volatility forecasting performance. We use the volatility and log volatility framework to prove how the inherent noise in the approximation of the true- and unobservable-volatility by the squared return, results in a misleading forecast evaluation, inflating the observed mean squared forecast error and invalidating the Diebold–Mariano statistic. We analytically characterize this noise and explicitly quantify its effects assuming normal errors. We extend our results using more general error structures such as the Compound Normal and the Gram–Charlier classes of distributions. We argue that evaluation problems are likely to be exacerbated by non-normality of the shocks and that non-linear and utility-based criteria can be more suitable for the evaluation of volatility forecasts.