FORECAST EFFECTS OF DROUGHT ON AGRICULTURAL LAND USE BY GIS AND REMOTE SENSING IN BAC TRA MY DISTRICT, QUANG NAM PROVINCE

Abstract

The phenomenon of prolonged drought as one of the consequences of climate change has significantly affected the agricultural production of rural communities in both mountainous and plain areas of Vietnam. This study, using standardized precipitation index (SPI) combining with the space technologies of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) to simulate and forecast the effects of drought on agricultural land use in Bac Tra My district, Quang Nam province. The data was set up for two scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in Bac Tra My district of Quang Nam province. Simultaneously, the research has also applied the focus group discussion, in-depth interview and field survey for data cross-checking to ensure highly reliable predictions. The research result has addressed four levels of drought, including normal, mild, moderate and severe drought appearing in the Summer-Autumn crop in the period 2016 – 2035 of the district. In which, severe drought will appear on large scale for both scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 5 types of agricultural land use including paddy, annual crop, perennial, afforestation and aquacultural land. From these findings, the local authorities can consider and apply the adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in agricultural land use planning.