Forecast demand for use magnetic levitation transport

Abstract

Background: The analysis carried out and the forecasted development prospects of the Vsevolozhsk municipal district show the high socio-economic importance of this territory for St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. This territory is intensively developing, new residential zones are being formed on it, enterprises are opening, new jobs are being created, and recreational zones are being organized. Active housing construction in the municipalities "City of Vsevolozhsk" and "Zanevskoye rural settlement" is accompanied by a significant increase in the population. According to the forecast, in 2041 the population of the municipal formation "City of Vsevolozhsk" will exceed 100 thousand people, of the "Zanevsky rural settlement" - 180 thousand people. The population of the municipalities of St. Petersburg included in the gravitational zone of the maglev transport line in the direction "Vsevolozhsk - St. Petersburg", in 2041 will increase by 1.4 times compared to 2015, amounting to 520 thousand people. The listed tendencies indicate that in the future the intensity of traffic flows will grow and the demand for the use of maglev passenger transport will increase.
 Aim: Putting into operation lines of magneto-transport vehicles in places of concentration of growing passenger flows, which will help to reduce travel time, meet freight requirements, improve the quality and increase travel safety when driving along dedicated lanes.
 Method: We have described the existing transport service system in Vsevolozhsk. The survey of passenger traffic on bus routes operating between Vsevolozhsk and St. Petersburg was carried out by two methods during the periods of morning and evening peaks, as well as during the inter-peak period: visual method and tabular method. The article gives a characteristic of the uneven distribution of passenger traffic at the Ladozhskaya metro station and the socio-economic characteristics of the pedestrian accessibility zone of stopping points, identifies the maximum passenger traffic and the need for rolling stock.
 Results: As the basis for the development of the transport system of urban agglomerations, it is proposed to use magnetolithic transport. For its operation, a special high-speed infrastructure and a new rolling stock are needed. In other words, there is a need for the development and economic evaluation of projects for the construction and operation of magnetolithic transport lines in the formation and implementation of transport strategies of modern urban agglomerations.