Forecast Comparisons

Abstract

This paper compares the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecasts for output, inflation and key public sector finance variables against the corresponding forecasts from HM Treasury (HMT), the Bank of England (Bank) and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). We find that NIESR outperforms, on average, other major bodies in its forecasts for output and in particular inflation where simple scores are used. It also performs well on the forecasting of the government current budget surplus but not public sector net borrowing. Statistical estimates of accuracy provide a less clear picture but their reliability is blighted by the small sample size.