Forecast‐Cartographic Modeling of Pasture Production of the Volgograd Region Based on Remote Sensing

Abstract

Aim. The work is devoted to identifying the productivity of pasture landscapes in the Volgograd region. The aim was to determine the direction of trends and the values of the coefficients of proportionality which would permit the definition of areas where the productivity of natural zonal vegetation has increased or decreased from 2000 until today. Material and Methods. Pasture productivity assessment is based on the analysis of the NDVI vegetation index, which is widely used in such studies. For analysis, specific pasture areas were identified in accordance with Global Land Cover, divided into egular grids and given overlays corresponding with the boundaries of municipalities and landscapes. Results. The largest areas of natural zonal pastures are located in the Trans‐Volga region and on the sandy massifs of the Don River valley. About 60% of pasture land has an average weighted average long‐term NDVI value from 0.3 to 0.4, and approximately a quarter – from 0.4 to 0.5. In most parts of the region there are negative NDVI trends. The highest rate of degradation is noted in the Trans‐Volga region. This is associated with larger pasturing loads than in the rest of the region, as well as with the regular occurrence of steppe fires. Conclusion. In summation: the productivity trends of zonal pastures in the Volgograd region have been determined, as have areas with different NDVI directions and dynamics. The application of these results in practice should make it possible to predict pasture productivity in various municipal districts and landscapes of the region, and thus assist in the regulation of pasture loads and the mitigation of risks of vegetation degradation.