Forecast and assessment of the role of small agribusiness in the development of the agricultural sector of the Russian economy in the post-pandemic reality

D Rudoy,Lyudmila Dubrova,Mikhail Kabanenko,Marina Kholodova,Safura Muradova,Lyudmila Orekhova,V Kankhva,A Olshevskaya

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202021013010

Abstract

The article presents the role of small agribusiness in the development of the agricultural sector of the Russian economy in the post-pandemic reality, on the basis of forecast calculations and assessment of current trends in the development of the domestic agricultural sector, the effectiveness of which depends on ensuring sustainable rural development, preserving the historical appearance and territorial integrity of the country. The article examines the impact factors of Covid 19 that determine the development of Russian agriculture in the medium term and proves the need for the development of a large-scale agricultural sector of the economy. The calculation and analytical tools of the study are based on the methods of economic statistics, which allowed us to analyze the structural dynamics of the country's agricultural sector and determine the forecast parameters for the development of small agribusiness. The main forecast volumes of production by small agribusiness in rural areas of such types of food as grain, sunflower, meat and milk for the period up to 2025 are determined. Examples of adaptation of the agricultural sector to the conditions of post-pandemic reality abroad are given.

Highlights

The strengthening of rapid trends of geopolitical and geo-economic changes in the socio-economic picture of the world, caused by deep shocks characterized by such phenomena and processes of economic systems, including digital transformation, globalization, against the background of the spread of the Covid 19 coronavirus infection, was supplemented by an unprecedented structural, global economic crisis, what led to the formation of other ideas about the development of the world and national economy defined by a number of scientists as a tandem reality[1,2,3,4]
Discussing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Russian economy against the background of the global crisis, experts point to the impact of various economic shocks that will determine the development of the national economy over the coming period, including: - falling oil prices; - regulatory decisions of authorities at all levels aimed at slowing the spread of coronavirus infection, which resulted in the loss of individual economic entities from the chain of production and economic relations, including in the agro-industrial complex, which may lead to a break in the existing ties, as in the situation in early 1990; - decrease in foreign demand for a wide range of domestic goods, due to the slowdown in the global economy [2,3,4]
Small agribusiness in rural areas is represented by a harmonious symbiosis of the development of peasant farms, including family farms, the effectiveness of which depends on ensuring sustainable rural development, preserving the historical appearance and territorial integrity of the country, and demonstrates a stable dynamics of economic growth that exceeds the results of large and medium-sized agricultural organizations

Summary

Introduction

The strengthening of rapid trends of geopolitical and geo-economic changes in the socio-economic picture of the world, caused by deep shocks characterized by such phenomena and processes of economic systems, including digital transformation, globalization, against the background of the spread of the Covid 19 coronavirus infection, was supplemented by an unprecedented structural, global economic crisis, what led to the formation of other ideas about the development of the world and national economy defined by a number of scientists (domestic and foreign economists) as a tandem reality[1,2,3,4]. It is very difficult to determine the impact of the pandemic syndrome on the. Based on the current trends, there is a need to determine the forecast estimates of the role of small agribusiness in the development of the agricultural sector in the conditions of various shocks in order to justify the directions of its sustainable development

Materials and methods

Conclusion

Findings

COVID19 global economic recession