Abstract
Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.
Highlights
West African countries, those in the Sahel region, are suffering the adverse effects of climate change, marked by extreme events [1] with long-term reduction in rainfall intensity in semi-arid regions [2]; these countries experienced during the period 1968-1995, the significant deficit of the 20th century in terms of duration, intensity and scope [3,4,5,6]
These effects are marked by a high variability of interannual rainfall [7, 10], Lucien Damiba et al.: Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso extreme weather conditions in terms of drought and/or recurrent floods, violent winds, and rising temperatures making these communities more vulnerable
Climate forecast seems to us to play an essential role, for agriculture and the management of water resources. This seasonal forecast used as an early warning would be very useful for Sahel producers and makes it possible to anticipate crisis situations based on observations and rainfall forecasts in the coming months [13, 14] These forecasts allow communities to adapt their seed choices and plan water resource use according to future rainfall trends
Summary
West African countries, those in the Sahel region, are suffering the adverse effects of climate change, marked by extreme events [1] with long-term reduction in rainfall intensity in semi-arid regions [2]; these countries experienced during the period 1968-1995, the significant deficit of the 20th century in terms of duration, intensity and scope [3,4,5,6]. Rural communities are increasingly feeling the negative effects of climate change These effects are marked by a high variability of interannual rainfall [7, 10], Lucien Damiba et al.: Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso extreme weather conditions in terms of drought and/or recurrent floods, violent winds, and rising temperatures making these communities more vulnerable. This makes the planning of social, economic or cultural activities more and more challenging. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how useful are data collected by local population for local planning, water use plans and in building community resilience in the Sahel
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