Foot-and-Mouth Disease Space-Time Clusters and Risk Factors in Cattle and Buffalo in Bangladesh.

A K M Anisur Rahman,Sk Shaheenur Islam,Md Abu Sufian,Beatriz Martínez-López,Md Hasanuzzaman Talukder,Michael P Ward

doi:10.3390/pathogens9060423

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly endemic in Bangladesh. Using passive surveillance data (case records from all 64 districts of Bangladesh, 2014–2017) and district domestic ruminant population estimates, we calculated FMD cumulative incidence per 10,000 animals at risk per district, conducted cluster (Moran’s spatial autocorrelation and scan statistics) and hotspot analysis (local indicator of spatial association statistic), created predictive maps and identified risk factors using a geographically weighted regression model. A total of 548,817 FMD cases in cattle and buffalo were reported during the four-year study period. The highest proportion (31.5%) of cases were reported during the post-monsoon season, and from Chattogram (29.2%) division. Five space-time clusters, 9 local clusters, and 14 hotspots were identified. Overall, higher cumulative incidences of FMD were consistently predicted in eastern parts of Bangladesh. The precipitation in the pre-monsoon season (p = 0.0008) was positively associated with FMD in Bangladesh. Results suggest climate plays an important role in the epidemiology of FMD in Bangladesh, and high risk zones exist. In a resource limited-setting, hotspots and clusters should be prioritized for vaccination coverage, and surveillance for FMD should be targeted in eastern areas of Bangladesh and during the post-monsoon season.

Highlights

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an extremely contagious and acute viral disease of domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals
In univariable geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis, the average temperature during the monsoon, precipitation in the pre-monsoon season and water bodies land surface were significantly associated with FMD in Bangladesh (Table 3) and selected as potential good candidate predictors to be included in the final multivariable model
Some high-high and low-low clusters, and hotspots were identified, mostly in eastern Bangladesh, Using four years of national-level passive surveillance data we have described for the first-time and the distribution of FMD in cattle and buffalo in Bangladesh was found to be associated with the hotspots, clusters in space and time, and climatic risk for FMD in cattle and buffalo in Bangladesh

Summary

Introduction

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an extremely contagious and acute viral disease of domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals. It is highly endemic in Africa and Asia including Bangladesh [1]. Vesicular epithelium, respiratory aerosols, and droplets, milk, urine, and semen of acutely infected animals contain large amounts of FMD virus. Susceptible animals are infected through direct contact with respiratory aerosols and droplets from acutely infected animals, or indirectly via the environment or mechanically by persons, vehicles, wild animals, or birds [3]. FMD causes reduction in milk yield (up to 33%), reduced growth, mortality in calves, loss of traction

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Conclusion