Foot-and-mouth disease in the UK: What should we do next time?

Abstract

Mathematical models were used to guide the UK foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control policy during the 2001 epidemic. Based on data collected during the epidemic, prospective modelling using a variety of approaches gave the same conclusions: (i) that the epidemic had not been brought under control by 'traditional' methods, and (ii) that neighbourhood control measures (the contiguous cull) could bring the epidemic under control and result in a net saving of livestock. Retrospective analyses suggest that the subsequent course of the epidemic was consistent with a beneficial impact of the contiguous cull and that it would have been difficult to achieve a better outcome using reactive vaccination, which would have required very large-scale vaccination programmes to have been implemented quickly. Perhaps the most important lesson to be learned is the vital importance of rapid and decisive intervention in response to an outbreak, including the earliest possible implementation of a national ban on the movement of livestock once the presence of disease is confirmed.