Foodborne Disease Estimates for the United Kingdom in 2018

Abstract

In February 2020 the FSA published two reports which produced new estimates of foodborne norovirus cases. These were the ‘Norovirus Attribution Study’ (NoVAS study) (O’Brien et al., 2020) and the accompanying internal FSA technical review ‘Technical Report: Review of Quantitative Risk Assessment of foodborne norovirus transmission’ (NoVAS model review), (Food Standards Agency, 2020). The NoVAS study produced a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment model (QMRA) to estimate foodborne norovirus. The NoVAS model review considered the impact of using alternative assumptions and other data sources on these estimates. From these two pieces of work, a revised estimate of foodborne norovirus was produced. The FSA has therefore updated its estimates of annual foodborne disease to include these new results and also to take account of more recent data related to other pathogens. The estimates produced include: •Estimates of GP presentations and hospital admissions for foodbornenorovirus based on the new estimates of cases. The NoVAS study onlyproduced estimates for cases. •Estimates of foodborne cases, GP presentations and hospital admissions for12 other pathogens •Estimates of unattributed cases of foodborne disease •Estimates of total foodborne disease from all pathogens Previous estimates An FSA funded research project ‘The second study of infectious intestinal disease in the community’, published in 2012 and referred to as the IID2 study (Tam et al., 2012), estimated that there were 17 million cases of infectious intestinal disease (IID) in 2009. These include illness caused by all sources, not just food. Of these 17 million cases, around 40% (around 7 million) could be attributed to 13 known pathogens. These pathogens included norovirus. The remaining 60% of cases (equivalent to 10 million cases) were unattributed cases. These are cases where the causal pathogen is unknown. Reasons for this include the causal pathogen was not tested for, the test was not sensitive enough to detect the causal pathogen or the pathogen is unknown to science. A second project ‘Costed extension to the second study of infectious intestinal disease in the community’, published in 2014 and known as IID2 extension (Tam, Larose and O’Brien, 2014), estimated that there were 566,000 cases of foodborne disease per year caused by the same 13 known pathogens. Although a proportion of the unattributed cases would also be due to food, no estimate was provided for this in the IID2 extension. New estimates We estimate that there were 2.4 million cases of foodborne disease in the UK in 2018 (95% credible intervals 1.8 million to 3.1 million), with 222,000 GP presentations (95% Cred. Int. 150,000 to 322,000) and 16,400 hospital admissions (95% Cred. Int. 11,200 to 26,000). Of the estimated 2.4 million cases, 0.9 million (95% Cred. Int. 0.7 million to 1.2 million) were from the 13 known pathogens included in the IID2 extension and 1.4 million1 (95% Cred. Int. 1.0 million to 2.0 million) for unattributed cases. Norovirus was the pathogen with the largest estimate with 383,000 cases a year. However, this estimate is within the 95% credible interval for Campylobacter of 127,000 to 571,000. The pathogen with the next highest number of cases was Clostridium perfringens with 85,000 (95% Cred. Int. 32,000 to 225,000). While the methodology used in the NoVAS study does not lend itself to producing credible intervals for cases of norovirus, this does not mean that there is no uncertainty in these estimates. There were a number of parameters used in the NoVAS study which, while based on the best science currently available, were acknowledged to have uncertain values. Sensitivity analysis undertaken as part of the study showed that changes to the values of these parameters could make big differences to the overall estimates. Campylobacter was estimated to have the most GP presentations with 43,000 (95% Cred. Int. 19,000 to 76,000) followed by norovirus with 17,000 (95% Cred. Int. 11,000 to 26,000) and Clostridium perfringens with 13,000 (95% Cred. Int. 6,000 to 29,000). For hospital admissions Campylobacter was estimated to have 3,500 (95% Cred. Int. 1,400 to 7,600), followed by norovirus 2,200 (95% Cred. Int. 1,500 to 3,100) and Salmonella with 2,100 admissions (95% Cred. Int. 400 to 9,900). As many of these credible intervals overlap, any ranking needs to be undertaken with caution. While the estimates provided in this report are for 2018 the methodology described can be applied to future years.