Food Self-sufficiency Decision Support Model Based on Provinces in Indonesia Using the Clustering Method

Muhammad Ramadhani, 2019 ‘’Factors to affect the import of rice in Indonesia’’ guided by Jiuhardi and Erwin Kurniawan A. This research aims to determine the effect of rice production, total population and local rice prices on the import of rice in Indonesia.This research uses secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (Kementan), and the General Company of Logistics Affairs (Perum Bulog).The analytical techniques used are multiple linear regression analyses. The results showed that rice production was affects negative and insignificant the import of rice in Indonesia. total population was affects positive and significant the import of rice in Indonesia. local rice prices was affects positive and significant the import of rice in Indonesia.

The Indonesian government introduced rice import activities as a necessary requirement to increase national rice reserves. In Indonesia, policies regarding the export and import of rice have been regulated in the Regulation of the Minister of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia Number 1 of 2018 concerning provisions for the export and import of rice. Rice imports are carried out by the Public Logistics Affairs Agency (Perum Bulog). The problem from a legal and economic point of view is that the policy of banning Indian rice exports will affect the reduced supply of rice reserves in Indonesia, due to the reduced supply of rice in Indonesia, inevitably the Indonesian government will make a policy by increasing the price of rice sold in Indonesia. The ban on Indian rice imports to Indonesia certainly did not just happen. According to the data the author obtained, India's export ban policy to other countries was motivated by monsoon rains which resulted in a decrease in rice yields in India. In this study the authors used normative juridical legal research methods or library research. For the Indonesian government to immediately look for other rice supplying countries to cover the shortage of rice in Indonesia, so that the people are not increasingly suffocated by the increase and scarcity of rice prices due to the ban on imports of Indian rice to Indonesia.

Needs-based food and nutrient security indices to monitor and modify the food supply and intakes: Taiwan, 1991–2010

The rice import plan to be carried out by the Indonesian government is a very interesting issue to discuss considering that Indonesia is known as an agricultural country. Based on data shown by BPS in 2017, around 29.76% of Indonesia's population works as farmers. This means that when rice import activities are carried out, the welfare of 31.68 million people (farmers) will experience a decline. This study aims to analyze the Indonesian government's plan to import 1 million tonnes of rice, from the perspective of the community that is broadcast on the data and analysis on social media. Meanwhile, data and social media analysis can be seen on (Twitter) obtained through Drone Emprit in the period 13-19 March 2021. The results found based on the data displayed by Drone Emprit show that the issue or plan to import 1 million tons of rice is an inviting policy. many pros and cons in society. The policy for rice imports is strongly rejected by the majority of Twitter people because farmers will enter the main harvest, which is when rice imports continue, what happens is a decrease in the selling price of rice from farmers. And as a result, the farmers will experience a lot of losses.

North Sumatra is one of the rice-producing provinces in Indonesia. Although North Sumatra is rice producing center in Indonesia, North Sumatra still continues to import rice to keep the rice needs of the population and the government's rice reserves. This study aims to: (1) Analyzed the conditions of foreign trade related to North Sumatra's imports of rice commodities in 1998-2020. (2) Analyze the effect of rice production, rice consumption, import tariffs, Rupiah exchange rate against USD and inflation on rice imports in North Sumatra province. (3) Analyze which independent variables most influence rice imports in North Sumatra. The data used are secondary data sourced from BPS North Sumatra, the Worldbank Website, Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Finance and other agencies that provide data related to this research. The data taken are data on imported rice, rice production, rice consumption, exchange rates, and inflation in North Sumatra in time series from 1998-2020. Data analysis was performed using multiple linear regression analysis using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method and using the SPSS 24 program. The results of this study Simultaneously show that the independent variables jointly have a significant effect on rice imports. And partially the variables of production, exchange rates, and inflation have negative and not significant effect on rice imports, the rice consumptions variable has a positive and not significant effect on rice imports, and the import tariff variable has a negative and significant effect on rice imports in North Sumatra and the most effected variable on rice import is import tariff

To fulfil the need of rice is to increase the domestic production, which is the one of the government’s policy. However, by increasing the population, the demand of rice will also increase and the effort of increase the domestic productivity cannot supply the need of domestic rice. So, to cover the shortage the government makes decision to import rice from other countries. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also increased after monetary crisis in 1998. In the fact of the import of rice is occurred when the statistical data showed that the supply of rice in Indonesia is surplus. The aim of this research is necessary to study the factors which influence the import of rice in Indonesia. The analysis method used is multiple linear regression analysis model with Error Correction Model (ECM). Based on the research proven that partially or jointly the gross domestic product, the consumption, the price of rice in world market are influence significantly toward the import of rice in Indonesia.

The food crisis of 2008 in Nigeria was influenced by price changes in the world market and the escalation of the price of imported fuel into Nigeria which led to sharp increases in the prices of agricultural inputs and transportation cost. The soaring prices of food staples benefited the producers whereas there was a worsening of malnutrition among the poor. To cushion the effects within the short-term, the government released grains from the reserve, ordered the import of half a million tonnes of rice to be sold at a subsidized rate and suspended the tariff on rice imports. The policy measures adopted caused a reversal of the trend of food price increase within six months, generated awareness about the nutritional importance of major food staples, and led to changes in preferences in the demand for food commodities and stimulated increased financing for commercial agriculture. This study sought to (i) examine the political economy issues surrounding the 2008 food price crisis, (ii) analyse the performance of the medium-term policies and strategies to prevent a recurrence of the 2008 episode and (iii) draw policy implications for price stability in the country. The study found that the country has not been under any threat of food crisis since the 2008 episode. Right from 2011, the medium-term policies and strategies were re-designed and entrenched as major components of the agricultural transformation agenda (ATA). The implementation of the ATA has led to an increase in domestic food production, reduction in food import and stabilization of food prices.

The impact of India’s food security policy on domestic and international rice market

Poverty is an urgent problem to be overcome immediately because not only includes economicproblems but also social problems and domestic political instability. Poor population is the populationwho are unable to meet the minimum basic food and non-food needs. This study aims to analyze thefactors that affect poverty in Indonesia and analyze rice policy, economic growth and fiscal policy onpoverty alleviation in Indonesia. This research method used multiple regression analysis with timeseries data from 1988 - 2017. The results showed that statistically, the coefficient of determination(R2) was quite high. Based on the F-statistic test, all independent variables simultaneously have asignificant effect on the dependent variable. Based on partial siginification test, Indonesian riceproduction variable, Indonesian total rice import variable, government purchase price variable on ricecommodity and economic growth variables respectively have a significant effect on poverty variable.The elasticity values of Indonesian rice production variable, Indonesian total rice import variable,government purchase price variable on rice commodity and economic growth variable has elasticityvalues that are inelastic. While the variable government spending on infrastructure has no effect on thepoverty variable.

This research aims aims to analyze the impact of rice imports from Thailand and Vietnam on rice market price stability in Indonesia. Using quantitative methods, this study explores time series data from 2018 to 2022 to analyze demand and supply. Average rice consumption, domestic production, and rice imports from both countries are calculated as part of the quantitative calculations. An evaluation of medium and premium rice price variables was also conducted to identify potential market fluctuations. The research findings provide in-depth insights into the relationship between rice imports, domestic production, and rice price stability in Indonesia. This research is expected to make a valuable contribution in managing rice supply and formulating appropriate economic policies in Indonesia. The research was conducted to determine whether production, price and consumption have a relationship with Indonesia's rice imports. From various sources by discussing the production, price and level of domestic consumption. It was found that Indonesia's rice import quantity is influenced by the level of domestic rice consumption and production, which has an impact on the price of rice in the Indonesian market.

Rice is the main staple food of the vast majority of Sierra Leoneans, eaten on a daily basis by almost every household in the country. Rice is the most important food crop widely grown by farmers across the country. Although much attention is now focused on rice production through the small holder commercialization programme (SHCP), less attention has been given to investigating the constraints faced by rice producers in the country. Also, as food insecurity continues to be a major development problem across the country, thereby undermining people’s health, productivity, and often their very survival; this study contributes to efforts to overcome the development challenges posed by food insecurity necessarily begin with accurate assessment of influential factors that constrained the production of the staple food, rice. The main objective of this study is therefore to analysis the factors that influence rice production in the country, and specifically examine the relationship between rice production and the price of rice as sold in the domestic market. The study used a log linear model with the quantity of rice produced as the dependent variable and the price of domestic rice, quantity of rice imported and price of imported rice as explanatory. Findings indicated that, domestic rice is more expensive than imported rice per ton, and this underscores the argument that, rice importation is undermining domestic rice production as a viable income generating activity. Also, almost all the people in the capital city which hosts about 70% of the total population of country prefer eating imported rice, since it is free from stones and other impurities. However, In order to control price and still increase rice production, the government should be able to purchase the rice from the farmers and then sell this rice to private retailers.

Indonesia is a country where most of its people rely on the agricultural sector as a livelihood. Indonesia's rice production is so high that it can not meet the needs of its population, consequently Indonesia still has to import rice from other food producing countries. One of the main causes is the enormous population. Statistics show that in the range of 230-237 million people, the staple food of all residents is rice so it is clear that the need for rice becomes very large. This study discusses the application of datamining on rice import by main country of origin using K-Means Clustering Method. Sources of data of this study were collected based on import import declaration documents produced by the Directorate General of Customs and Excise. In addition since 2015, import data also comes from PT. Pos Indonesia, records of other agencies at the border, and the results of cross-border maritime trade surveys. The data used in this study is the data of rice imports by country of origin from 2000-2015 consisting of 10 countries namely Vietnam, Thailand, China, India, Pakistan, United States, Taiwan, Singapore, Myanmar and Others. Variable used (1) total import of rice (net) and (2) import purchase value (CIF). The data will be processed by clustering rice imports by main country of origin in 3 clusters ie high imported cluster, medium imported cluster and low import level cluster. The clustering method used in this research is K-Means method. Cetroid data for high import level clusters 7429180 and 2735452,25, Cetroid data for medium import level clusters 1046359.5 and 337703.05 and Cetroid data for low import level clusters 185559.425 and 53089.225. The result is an assessment based on rice import index with 2 high imported cluster countries namely Vietnam and Thailand, 4 medium-level clusters of moderate import countries namely China, India, Pakistan and Lainya and 4 low imported cluster countries namely USA, Taiwan, Singapore and Myanmar. The results of the research can be used to determine the amount of rice imported by the main country of origin

Rice is a staple food for Indonesian households. After achieving self-sufficiency of rice in 1984, Indonesia still had to import rice because the domestic rice consumption always exceeded the domestic rice production. This study attempts to analyze a rice import during the 1998-2014 period. The rice import was analyzed based on the main partner of Indonesian rice imports encompassing of Vietnam, Thailand, USA, Other countries. This research applied the demand system method using Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). The results indicate that price elasticity of rice import from Vietnam and Thailand was inelastic while from other countries, they were elastic. Based on the expenditure elasticity of rice import, rice is the normal goods for rice import from Thailand and USA. The policy simulation shows that the increase in the price of rice import leads to the decrease of rice import. However, rice import from certain countries such as Thailand still increase. Rice is the staple food, therefore, the government must set up policy to increase domestic rice production for reducing dependency on rice imports.

- Rice is a crucial staple food in Indonesia, and the country's decision to import 3 million tonnes of rice has significant implications for its economy, agriculture sector, and food security. This study aims to analyze the benefits and drawbacks of this massive rice importation through a comprehensive examination of macroeconomics, microeconomics, international economics, and political economics. The main objectives are to provide recommendations for managerial stakeholders and to develop a vision for rice self-sufficiency. The background problems include the potential impact on Indonesia's trade balance, foreign exchange reserves, market consumption, and the socio-economic effects on local farmers. The novelty of this study lies in the lack of adequate research on the enduring effects of extensive rice imports and the need to explore options for achieving a balance between imports and domestic production. The research methods involve a literature review and analysis of scholarly articles and journals, focusing on economic indicators, trade statistics, and agricultural production data. The findings highlight the macroeconomic and microeconomic implications of rice imports, including potential disruptions in the agricultural industry, income distribution, and market dynamics. The conclusion emphasizes the need for comprehensive policies to address the challenges of rice importation and achieve a balance between food security and economic sustainability. The implications of the research underscore the importance of strategic decision-making to harmonize the needs of customers, farmers, and the broader economy, while safeguarding overall economic stability and social welfare.
 Keywords: Export; Import; International Economics; Macroeconomics; Microeconomics; Politic Economics; Rice Self-Sufficiency

Inconsistent and inefficient policies, climate issues and general poor funding have been adjudged to hinder increased domestic rice production in Nigeria. Rather than tackling these challenges, the nation has continued to opt for importation to supplement her domestic production, if not for recently, as a ‘stop-gap’ for food security. Geared towards strengthening the resilient efforts of the small holder farmers and driving increased rice production, this paper examined the trends in rice imports and production between 1980 and 2021; and also identified the determinants of rice imports in Nigeria. Secondary data were used for this study, while descriptive statistics and ARDL model were used to analyze the data. The results showed that the average quantities of rice production and rice imports were 3.51 and 0.24 million tons over the periods. The periods between 1998 and 2007 experienced a wide volatility of rice imports over rice production. Again, the results of ARDL model implied that exchange rate, GDP and quantity of rice production were statistically significant in influencing changes in the quantity of rice imports in the area. Therefore, since GDP and quantity of rice production had negative relationship with rice imports, it would be suggested that efforts geared at increasing rice production in Nigeria should be tailored at revamping agricultural extension services to enhance a genuine two-way communication between researchers and the farmers vis-à-vis increase food production.
 Keywords: Rice Imports, Trends, Rice Production, ARDL Model, Nigeria.