Food security outcomes under a changing climate: impacts of mitigation and adaptation on vulnerability to food insecurity

Katy J Richardson,Helen M Hanlon,P Krishna Krishnamurthy,Andrew J Wiltshire,Chris Kent,Kirsty H Lewis

doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2137-y

Katy J Richardson, Helen M Hanlon + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2137-y

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Abstract

Climate change is a potential threat to achieving food security, particularly in the most food insecure regions. However, interpreting climate change projections to better understand the potential impacts of a changing climate on food security outcomes is challenging. This paper addresses this challenge through presenting a framework that enables rapid country-level assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity under a range of climate change and adaptation investment scenarios. The results show that vulnerability to food insecurity is projected to increase under all emissions scenarios, and the geographic distribution of vulnerability is similar to that of the present-day; parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are most severely affected. High levels of adaptation act to off-set these increases; however, only the scenario with the highest level of mitigation combined with high levels of adaptation shows improvements in vulnerability compared to the present-day. The results highlight the dual requirement for mitigation and adaptation to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to make gains in tackling food insecurity. The approach is an update to the existing Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index methodology to enable future projections, and the framework presented allows rapid updates to the results as and when new information becomes available, such as updated country-level yield data or climate model output. This approach provides a framework for assessing policy-relevant human food security outcomes for use in long-term climate change and food security planning; the results have been made available on an interactive website for policymakers (www.metoffice.gov.uk/food-insecurity-index).

Highlights

Around 815 million people worldwide are chronically undernourished (FAO et al 2017)
vulnerability to food insecurity (VFI) for the baseline period (1981–2010) was calculated following the updated and adapted Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index (HCVI) methodology presented in Section 2.1 and Fig. 1b and is mapped in Fig. 2a along with a histogram showing the distribution of the index and individual component values (Fig. 2b)
This paper presents a method for assessing the complex relationship between climate change and food security through an index measure of comparative vulnerability to food insecurity (VFI) in developing and least-developed countries

Summary

Introduction

Around 815 million people worldwide are chronically undernourished (FAO et al 2017). The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development aims to end hunger and achieve food security (Sustainable Development Goal 2; UNDP 2015); achieving this in the face of a changing climate will require increased investments and planning. There is an urgent requirement for accessible, policy-relevant information about the impacts of climate change on food security, to ensure decision makers are equipped with useful and practical advice to inform long-term planning (Lobell et al 2008; Brown and Funk 2008; Gornall et al 2010; Foresight 2011; Wheeler and von Braun 2013; Porter et al 2014; Vermeulen 2014). Such information needs to address questions on the direction and scale of change, and the timing and location of the worst impacts, in order to support prioritisation of mitigation and adaptation solutions. Few studies take a more holistic view and translate this information into policy-relevant human food security outcomes

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