Abstract
Analyses of food security with agricultural systems models often focus on indicators of food availability, with limited treatment of the other three dimensions: food access, stability and utilization. We illustrate how three indicators of access (food consumption expenditures, a food insecurity scale and dietary diversity) and their stability can be incorporated into a dynamic household-level model of a maize-based production system in the Kenya highlands and a dynamic regional model of sheep production and marketing in Mexico. Although stylized due to limits on empirical evidence, the analyses suggest that inclusion of multiple access indicators can provide insights because the indicators respond differently to production shocks, demand growth and programs providing production subsidies. We also illustrate how to examine stability of food security outcomes in response to shocks using metrics of hardness (ability to withstand shocks) and elasticity (ability to return to previous conditions). The data required for more widespread empirical implementation of these methods include measurement—preferably at frequent intervals over time—of food access indicators, but also their determinants and linkages to outcomes in agricultural systems models. Analyses of food access and stability will be most valuable for assessments of food security impacts of climate change, when food systems are undergoing transformative change and to identify priority interventions and target audiences.
Highlights
Food security is increasingly invoked as a critical motivational factor in agricultural systems research, as a trend within a broader movement towards nutrition-sensitive agriculture (FAO, 2013). Stephens et al (2018) documented significant gaps in the literature spanning the agricultural systems and food security research communities, with limited exploration of the multiple intersections and interfaces between agricultural system components and food security determinants and outcomes
In a companion paper (Nicholson et al, 2021), we described common indicators of four dimensions of food security, documented their use in agricultural systems models analyzing food security, and recommended actions to improve the representation of food security in agricultural systems models
The results provide motivation and justification for future efforts to incorporate food access and stability indicators into agricultural system models
Summary
Food security is increasingly invoked as a critical motivational factor in agricultural systems research, as a trend within a broader movement towards nutrition-sensitive agriculture (FAO, 2013). Stephens et al (2018) documented significant gaps in the literature spanning the agricultural systems and food security research communities, with limited exploration of the multiple intersections and interfaces between agricultural system components and food security determinants and outcomes. In a companion paper (Nicholson et al, 2021), we described common indicators of four dimensions of food security (availability, access, utilization and stability), documented their use in agricultural systems models analyzing food security, and recommended actions to improve the representation of food security in agricultural systems models. 1) Avoid equating “food availability” with “food security”; 2) Incorporate food access indicators; 3) Assess stability outcomes for food security indicators; 4) Develop empirical evidence linking outcomes in agricultural systems models to food access outcomes. The first of these recommendations concerns primarily the language used to describe research results, so will not be further discussed here. Case examples for integration of food security indicators into agricultural systems models
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