Abstract

Indirect methods to estimate parental status, such as the observation of parental provisioning, have been problematic due to potential biases associated with imperfect detection. We developed a method to evaluate parental status based on a novel combination of parental provisioning observations and hierarchical modeling. In the summers of 2009 to 2011, we surveyed 393 sites, each on three to four consecutive days at Forêt Montmorency, Québec, Canada. We assessed parental status of 2331 adult songbirds based on parental food provisioning. To account for imperfect detection of parental status, we applied MacKenzie et al.'s (2002) two-state hierarchical model to obtain unbiased estimates of the proportion of sites with successfully nesting birds, and the proportion of adults with offspring. To obtain an independent evaluation of detection probability, we monitored 16 active nests in 2010 and conducted parental provisioning observations away from them. The probability of detecting food provisioning was 0.31 when using nest monitoring, a value within the 0.11 to 0.38 range that was estimated by two-state models. The proportion of adults or sites with broods approached 0.90 and varied depending on date during the sampling season and year, exemplifying the role of eastern boreal forests as highly productive nesting grounds for songbirds. This study offers a simple and effective sampling design for studying avian reproductive performance that could be implemented in national surveys such as breeding bird atlases.

Highlights

  • Estimating reproductive performance is central to the understanding of population dynamics

  • Sampling parental provisioning We evaluated parental provisioning from 18 songbird species (Table 1) in 224 sites sampled from a set of random points that were placed .200 m apart along unpaved forestry roads and trails, and beyond forestry roads in 168 sites that were placed 250 m apart along systematic straight-line transects dispersed over the entire study area (Figure 1)

  • Proportions of sites with adults provisioning young A high proportion of sites contained adults provisioning young at the end of the breeding season, and parental status was detected to a maximum of 58% among sites

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Summary

Introduction

Estimating reproductive performance is central to the understanding of population dynamics. In the case of birds, nesting success is typically measured through nest monitoring [1]. It is usually restricted to small areas [1], [10], [11], and to one or a small number of target species at a time, generally over small and intensively studied plots [11]. Despite their labor-intensiveness, nest monitoring studies may be subject to bias in the estimation of nesting success such as errors in nest fate estimation or partial predation [12]

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