3 - Food production

The aim of the study was to determine changes in the demand for food in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis covered 2017-2021, i.e., the period both before and during the pandemic (2022 was excluded due to the impact of events related to the war in Ukraine). The study uses comparative and descriptive analysis methods. The macroeconomic indicators of the Central Statistical Office were used to identify the macroeconomic determinants of demand for food, while the identification of purchasing changes was determined on the basis of the results of household budget surveys. During the pandemic, despite the decline in the GDP, we could see an improvement in household income. Despite the reduction in total consumption in the first year of the pandemic, household food consumption increased significantly, which continued the following year. In turn, a significant reduction in household spending on catering services indirectly influences the demand for agricultural and food products, but the scale of this impact is difficult to estimate. Further study of changes in food demand should include the period of the war in Ukraine. In its aftermath, agricultural and energy commodity prices rose, and there was an influx of refugees to Poland, which undoubtedly impacted changes in food demand.

Economic growth followed by urbanization and food supply modernization in developing countries would lead to substantial changes in food demand. Global agri-food systems are undergoing a rapid transformation towards high-value and high-quality products. China would be a good and important example. The rapid economic growth has led substantial changes in food consumption. Chinese consumers substantially increased their consumption of meat, dairy products and fruits and pay more attention to food quality. In conjugation with economic growth, consumers are experiencing nutrition transition due to the changes in food consumption patterns, especially in the emerging countries. Those transformations in agri-food systems need to be understood with a view to agricultural and food policies. And an analysis of the changes in food consumption is the corner stone for demand projections and poverty demolishing.
\nHence, it is of great importance to deepen our understanding of dynamics in food demand and the consequences for nutrition transition with income growth. This dissertation carries out three studies on dynamic food demand and its consequences for nutrition transition. Specifically, there are three topics investigated in this dissertation as follows: to propose a dynamic demand system to capture the consumption behavior in dynamic food demand process; to evaluate the dynamics and heterogeneities in income elasticities, and then to project China’s food consumption in the future; to illustrate transitions of nutrition consumption as the economic growth and food consumption changes. 
\nIn a first step this dissertation aims at analyzing food demand in dynamic process. Consumers may not simultaneously adjust their behavior to changes in income in the short-run, confined by the adjusting costs, such as habit formation, switching cost, and learning cost etc. The existence of adjusting costs implies that static demand models in the current main stream literature might not correctly model consumer behaviors. Specifically, the income or expenditure elasticities estimated by these static models might be over-reported. It could lead to serious policy consequence if these elasticities are used for projection. The first case study investigates dynamic food demand in urban China herein. With an adoption of transitionary demand process, a new approach of complete demand system with a two-stage dynamic budgeting system (DLES- LA/DAIDS) is developed, including an additively separable dynamic linear expenditure system (DLES) in the first stage and a linear approximate dynamic almost ideal demand system (LA/DAIDS). Employing provincial aggregate data (1995-2010) from the China urban household surveys (UHS), the estimates of the demand elasticities for primary food products in urban China are carried out. 
\nThe results indicate that most primary food products, including grains, edible oils, meat, poultry and vegetables, are necessities and price-inelastic for urban households in China. In the dynamic model, the assumption of simultaneously full adjustments, which is adopted in static models, is abolished due to adjusting costs (e.g. consumer expectation, habit formation, and learning/switching costs). Therefore, the results from different models would vary from each other. Comparing with the results from some static models, the results indicate that the dynamic model tends to yield relatively smaller expenditure elasticities in magnitude than the static models do. As this research methodologically relaxes the restrictive assumption and allows consumers to make dynamic decisions in food consumption, it can be used for better projections in policy simulation models.
\nSince demand elasticity is critical for gauging the growth of food demand, its accuracy and credibility are very important. However, it is a tough job to evaluate the elasticities and demand projections from a large volume of empirical studies on food demand in China, as they usually vary widely from each other. In a second step, a meta-analysis of the income elasticity of food demand in China is preformed, using of 143 elasticities for cereals and 240 for meat collected from 36 primary studies. The further projections of demand elasticities and food consumption are estimated based on the results of meta-regressions. 
\nThe study finds that income elasticities vary across products in both the cereals and meat groups. The elasticities for all meat (general meat, pork, poultry, beef & mutton) and cereal products (general cereals, wheat, rice, coarse grain), except for wheat, tend to decline with income growth. The results also indicate that urban-rural differences do not have a statistically significant impact on income elasticities for cereals after controlling for the differences in income between rural and urban areas. Moreover, the type of data (cross section, pooled, panel), publication source, budgeting process, demand models and the use of household expenditure as the measure of income in a study have significant impacts on the reported income elasticities in China after controlling for product differences. 
\nWith the assumptions on urbanization rates projected by the DRC(China Development Research Center of the State Council), population growth rates indicated by the UN and per capita income growth rates of 6.6% per year from 2012 onward (OECD projection), the projections of income elasticities for main food products for a few selected years are also worked out. The income elasticities for cereals and meat are projected to be 0.40 and 0.48 respectively at the national level in 2000, and those elasticities slide to 0.12 and 0.36 in 2030. Taking the dynamics in elasticities into account, the projections based on constant income elasticities usually are higher than those time-varying projections except for wheat. Specifically, the dynamically projected demand for cereal and meat will reach to 623.82 and 121.98 million tons respectively in 2030 in China, and the consumption of cereal and meat grows at the speed of 1.45% and 3.05% respectively in 2012-2030. The static projections are about 45.9 million tons for general cereals and 5.4 million tons for general meat higher by 2030. Given the tight domestic food supply situation in China, models used to make long-term consumption projections should incorporate time-varying income elasticities.
\nIn conjugation with the income growth, the changes of food consumption pattern usually lead to a nutrition transition. In a third step, the impact of income growth on nutrition transition is investigated. When income is very low, consumers tend to buy the cheapest food such as cassava, wheat and rice which are also cheap sources of calories. As income grows, consumers usually pay more attention to non-calorie attributes, rather than merely pursuing additional calories. The third case study proposes a finite mixture model (FMM) to identify the behavioral transition of calorie consumption with an assumption that nutrition consumption is a mixture of different behaviors in two stages: a hunger stage and an affluent stage. 
\nBased on 381 calorie-income elasticities collected from 90 primary studies, the results indicate that the calorie-income elasticity generally moves downwards as income grows, but the relationship between calorie-income elasticity and income varies across different stages. The threshold income for calorie demand transition is 459.8 USD in 2012 prices (PPP), namely 1.26 dollar/day, which is consistent with the World Bank’s poverty line (1.25 dollar/day in 2005 PPP prices). In the poor stage, the income elasticity declines rapidly. The results indicate that when income increases by 10%, the calorie income elasticity would decrease by 0.012. Once consumers reach the affluence stage, food choice becomes more complicated and a further increase of income will have no significant impact on calorie-income elasticity as non-nutritional attributes play important roles.

Many Asian countries are expected to undergo structural transformations in their economies and rapid urbanization over the next 25 years. The changes in tastes and lifestyles engendered by urban living are likely to have significant influences on food demand. Changes in marketing systems and occupational changes, closely linked with increasing GNP per capita, also may influence the demand for food. In this paper, estimates presented for Taiwan demonstrate that structural changes in food demand (as distinguished from changes due to income and price effects) have been significant factors driving the rapid changes in dietary patterns seen in East Asia over the past three decades. Because most previous demand studies have ignored the possible influence of structural shifts which are highly correlated with increases in per capita income over time, the effects of income on food demand have been overestimated.

Food security is the foundation of sustainable human development, and the balance between food supply and demand in urban areas is highly important for promoting residents' health and the sustainable development of cities. This paper takes the Urumqi Metropolitan Area (UMA), a typical oasis urban area, as the study area and uses the food production-demand gap indicator to assess the balance of food production and consumption in the region from 2000 to 2020 and projects food demand in 2030-2060. The results show, first, that residents' food consumption is characterized by high carbohydrate, protein, and fat consumption, and that this put more pressure on food production. Second, different food consumption structures will have different impacts on food production, and the local food production capacity in UMA falls short of ensuring a balanced nutritional structure for residents. Third, food demand increases significantly in 2030-2060, and the pressure of population consumption structure on food production is much greater than that of population growth. Considering the environmental effects of food transportation and the loss of food nutrients, on the production side, the construction of the UMA should be accelerated by including Qitai County and Jimsar County in the UMA's planning scope, strengthening city-regional connections, and improving the local food production and supply capacity of surrounding areas. On the consumption side, regional dietary guidelines should be developed based on local dietary culture and agricultural production conditions to help guide residents to adjust their dietary structures, thereby alleviating pressure on local food demand. Such measures are crucial for ensuring sufficient food supply and promoting balanced nutrition among the population.

Cutting edge technologies to end food waste

As a city-state that imports 90% of its food, Singapore is vulnerable to food insecurity. By relying on overseas sources to sustain its food supply, Singapore is at risk for food shortages and price fluctuations beyond its control. While arable land in Singapore shrinks due to development, there is increasing interest in domestic food production. Food security is impacted by changes in Singapore’s food production; however, even with increases (rooftop, vertical farms; technological advances), the small city-state is unlikely to achieve food independence. It is, therefore, critical to consider potential changes in food demand by the urban populations in the top countries that Singapore imports food from—as there is likely to be increasing competition for rural sources. Singapore might be an island, but it is intimately linked to the cities that rely on the same rural landscapes to meet their own urban food demand. This chapter investigates some of the social, political, and ecological linkages that situate Singapore within an agri-pelago of cities linked through food trans-boundaries.

Before considering in detail the way that estates and peasant communities change under the impact of capitalist economic relations, we need to consider the factors which give rise to these relations. Among the most important are changes in demand for food, in part prompted by urbanization in the peripheral country and also, in some cases, by the necessity to produce foodstuffs at a price which will make them competitive with imported produce. These changes in demand reinforce, in turn, technological developments in agriculture — both biological technologies which are “land saving” and mechanical technologies which make savings in labour. In addition, according to the “unequal exchange” theorists, it is in the interest of the industrial bourgeoisie that wage costs are low, in order that they should derive advantage from their insertion within the international market, where (in more developed countries) they are higher.

The impact of smoking reduction on food demand in people with excess weight.

Indian agriculture is going through crisis as well as transformation. Crisis in terms of supporting the livelihoods of the rural communities and transformation in terms of changes that are different from the experiences of the last halfa century, especially after the green revolution of 1960s and early 1970s. As the profitability of agriculture and its potential to meet the cash needs of the farmers is on the decline more and more people are considering quitting agriculture as their main source of income. While proportion of people in this category varies depending on the monsoon and the market, the desperation is clear in the sector and majority of the farmers don't see their kin facing the uncertain prospects. As a result, changes in terms of composition of farmers (especially age and educational status of the farmers and land use) are changing. Apart from cash needs, farmers are facing new constraints of labour shortages, varying climate, etc., which are not only influencing the crop decisions but also adding to the desperation. The reasons for this situation originate from our inheritance (agrarian structure, policies, etc) though some of them are from very recent past. The book under review written by Prof. Y. K. Alagh, one of the doyens of Indian agriculture (contributed as a researcher as well as policy maker), provides a lucid and comprehensive narration of Indian agriculture since independence. Apart from the introductory chapter, the book is organised in four parts viz., agricultural demand, meeting demands with growth; investment and technology and lessons and policies. Introductory chapter sets the background and overview of the book. Prof. Alagh narrates the inheritance of agricultural policies since green revolution and explains the deceleration and pickup of agricultural growth over the years. It is argued that Indian agriculture continues to be demand driven and this is expected to accelerate in future. Chapter two delves deeply into the factors behind the demand for agricultural produce viz., population, changes in demand for food and feed, food security, poverty, income distribution and food subsidies. This chapter provides an exhaustive review of all the important studies dealing with these aspects. Demand for agriculture produce is moving away from cereals and food grains in favour of milk and milk products; edible oils, sugar, etc., though there are variations between different estimates. It is shown that the population dependent on agriculture and the share of rural population is declining faster than the official projections (Chapter 3). It is argued that the present plans exclude 10 percent of the urban population.

ABSTRACTFood policy that ignores food-away-from-home (FAFH) in a developing country like South Africa will be misleading given changes in demand for food over time. This study contributes to our understanding of the factors that influence the demand for FAFH in South Africa. Using panel data from the Income and Expenditure Survey, this study analyses the effects of income and socio-demographic variables on FAFH expenditure using a double-hurdle model. The results show that small-sized households headed by younger white females/males and living in an urban settlement are most likely to purchase FAFH while male-headed households spend more than female-headed households. Furthermore, income of the household head is an important determinant of household FAFH expenditures. The income elasticity of expenditure on FAFH is inelastic and a normal good. The small size of the participation elasticities means that growth in the FAFH sector will be driven by households with existing expenditure.

Complete and consistent, i.e. theoretically appropriate demand systems have seldom been developed for Germany. Econometric food demand analyses have concentrated on single products and product groups. Generally, demand functions have been estimated using single equation methods. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the food demand in former West Germany on the basis of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by DEATON and MUELLBAUER (1980). A two-stage demand system is based on data for the household type III gathered on a monthly basis during the period from 1966 to 1997. At a first stage, five aggregates of food (meats and fish; dairy and eggs; edible fats; cereals, fruits and vegetables; and other foods) and one non-food group are specified. The second stage includes four groups of meat (beef, pork, poultry, and other processed meats) and fish. The results of the demand system allow statements about the changes in food demand over time periods.

Regionalization of food systems is a potential strategy to support environmental, economic and social sustainability. However, local preconditions need to be considered to assess the feasibility of such a transformation process. To better understand the potentials and perspectives of food self-sufficiency in urban and peri-urban areas, we determined the food self-sufficiency level (SSL) of a German metropolitan region, i.e., the percentage of the food demand that could be potentially provided on existing agricultural land. Main input parameters were actual food demand, agricultural productivity and its temporal variability and land availability. Furthermore, we considered changes in diet, food losses and land management. Based on current diets and agricultural productivity, the administrative region of Leipzig achieved a mean SSL of 94%, ranging from 77 to 116%. Additionally, an area of 26,932 ha, representing 12% of the regionally available agricultural land, was needed for commodities that are not cultivated regionally. Changes in food demand due to a diet shift to a more plant-based diet and reduced food losses would increase the SSL by 29 and 17%, respectively. A shift to organic agriculture would decrease the SSL by 34% due to lower crop yields compared with conventional production. However, a combination of organic agriculture with less food loss and a more plant-based diet would lead to a mean SSL of 95% (75–115%). Our results indicate the feasibility of food system regionalization in the study area under current and potential near future conditions. Addressing a combination of multiple dimensions, for example plant-based and healthier diets combined with reduced food loss and organic farming, is the most favorable approach to increase food self-sufficiency in urban and peri-urban areas and simultaneously provide synergies with social and environmental objectives.

Complete and consistent, i.e. theoretically appropriate demand systems have seldom been developed for Germany. Econometric food demand analyses have concentrated on single products and product groups. Generally, demand functions have been estimated using single equation methods. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the food demand in former West Germany on the basis of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by DEATON and MUELLBAUER (1980). A two-stage demand system is based on data for the household type III gathered on a monthly basis during the period from 1966 to 1997. At a first stage, five aggregates of food (meats and fish; dairy and eggs; edible fats; cereals, fruits and vegetables; and other foods) and one non-food group are specified. The second stage includes four groups of meat (beef, pork, poultry, and other processed meats) and fish. The results of the demand system allow statements about the changes in food demand over time periods.

Chapter 9 - Changing Food Systems: Implications for Food Security and Nutrition

Food consumption patterns and economic growth. Increasing affluence and the use of natural resources