Abstract
In this research, the fixed effect panel data predictive model was employed to formulate panel regression models of food production of 15 selected Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) using four (4) World Development Indicators (WDI) as explanatory variables. Data were collected from 1990 to 2013. The four WDI are Food imports (% of merchandise imports), Agricultural land (% of land area), Fertilizer consumption (kilograms per hectare of arable land) and Inflation (consumer prices annual %). The fixed effect with cross-sectional seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) static panel data method was employed. The result of the analysis shows that agricultural land and fertilizer consumption have significant positive effect on the food production index of ECOWAS countries, while food imports and rate of inflation have significant negative effect on food production index of the ECOWAS countries. It is seen that 98.8% of the variation in food production among ECOWAS countries can be explained by the variations in food imports, agricultural land, fertilizer consumption and inflation. We therefore recommend that ECOWAS countries should increase agricultural land and fertilizer consumption and reduce food imports and rate of inflation in order to boost their food production level and have excess to export.
Highlights
Modelling food production in this period of high cost of living in Nigeria and other West African country is sacrosanct
Based on a review of lessons learned from foodbased interventions implemented by FAO and other development partners, their paper addressed some of the major issues, challenges and opportunities involved in fulfilling the pledge of West African countries to meet the goal of reducing malnutrition by 50 percent in the nearest future [3]
The exploratory data analysis shows the behaviour of food production index among selected West African countries and it shows that there is upward trend in food production generally as was depicted by the time plot in figure 1 and figure 2. This supports the statement by Ekum et al, 2013 [1] that in recent years, African countries consist of the fastest growing economies in the world
Summary
Modelling food production in this period of high cost of living in Nigeria and other West African country is sacrosanct. If only Nigeria and other West African countries can key into statistical modelling, maybe we would have moved pass the level we are now. The economy of Africa consists of the trade, industry, agriculture, and human resources. As of 2012, approximately 1.07 billion people were living in 54 different countries. Africa is a resource-rich continent but many African people are poor. Africa is the world's poorest inhabited continent, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. African countries consist of the fastest growing economies in the world [1]. Wood (2002) argues that because it is land abundant, Africa will always have larger primary sector and smaller manufacturing sector than the land scarce regions of Asia and Europe [2]
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