Abstract
Many discussions following the 2007/08 food price crisis have revolved around the magnitude of the negative impacts that it may have had on food security worldwide. In South-Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC), food security is strongly interrelated with several key economic and political issues. Many of these countries are becoming increasingly import-dependent, particularly on cereals, which are the essential raw material for human and animal food and feed. Due to both their economic system structure and consumption, the SEMC are responsible for a third of world cereals imports, whereas they account for only 5% of the world population. Given the set of constraints and this dependence on global markets, SEMC will be probably more exposed to severe swings in agricultural commodity prices in the coming years. In this view, this study examines the dependence structure among global food grain markets and Morocco and provides flexible models for dependency and the conditional volatility GARCH. A copula-based GARCH model has been carried out to estimate the marginal distributions of Morocco and world cereals commodity price changes. The results revealed that the joint co-movement between agricultural commodity price changes around the world and in Morocco, are generally considerable and there exists asymmetric tail dependence.
Highlights
IntroductionThe Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 1996 [1] defined food security as situations where “all people at all times have the physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 1996 [1] defined food security as situations where “all people at all times have the physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.under food security, no individual faces hunger or starvation
The South-Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are responsible for a third of world cereals imports, whereas they account for only 5% of the world population
Summary
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 1996 [1] defined food security as situations where “all people at all times have the physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. Under food security, no individual faces hunger or starvation. Food insecurity arises when some individuals face limited or uncertain access to nutritionally adequate and safe food. The FAO in 2015 reported that 795 million people were chronically undernourished in the years. 2014–2016, representing 10.9% of the world population. This is important since food security is an important component of the process of economic development [2]
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