Food for a growing world population: Some of the main findings of a study on the long-term prospects of the world food situation

Abstract

A study has been made of the factors which determine the evolution of the production and use of food in various regions of the world It is particularly concerned with the period until the year 2010 when the world's population is expected to be roughly twice as large as it was in 1970. A Model of International Relations in Agriculture (MOIRA) has been set up in order to increase the knowledge of world relationships and their significance in the development of the food situation in various parts of the world. In this model an attempt has been made to describe human behaviour, not only of consumers and producers but also of governments, in the food supply process. After a short verbal description of the model the article concentrates on the effects of changes in exogenous variables, i. e., the rate of economic growth and population growth, and of policy alternatives, i. e., the reduction of food consumption in rich countries, food aid, the stabilisation of world market prices at various levels and the liberalisation of international trade. In this context the important role that rich countries could play with regard to world food supply has been discussed. The Appendix provides more detailed information about the construction of the model.