Food and nutrition security under global trade: a relation-driven agent-based global trade model.

Jiaqi Ge,Nuala Fitton,Pete Smith,Terry Dawson,Mukta Aphale,Jennie I Macdiarmid,J Gareth Polhill,Heather Clark

doi:10.1098/rsos.201587

Abstract

This paper addresses the highly relevant and timely issues of global trade and food security by developing an empirically grounded, relation-driven agent-based global trade model. Contrary to most price-driven trade models in the literature, the relation-driven agent-based global trade model focuses on the role of relational factors such as trust, familiarity, trade history and conflicts in countries' trade behaviour. Moreover, the global trade model is linked to a comprehensive nutrition formula to investigate the impact of trade on food and nutrition security, including macro and micronutrients. Preliminary results show that global trade improves the food and nutrition security of countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Trade also promotes a healthier and more balanced diet, as countries have access to an increased variety of food. The effect of trade in enhancing nutrition security, with an adequate supply of macro and micronutrients, is universal across nutrients and countries. As researchers call for a holistic and multifactorial approach to food security and climate change (Hammond and Dubé 2012 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 12 356–12 363. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0913003109)), the paper is one of the first to develop an integrated framework that consists of socio-economic, geopolitical, nutrition, environmental and agri-food systems to tackle these global challenges. Given the ongoing events of Brexit, the US–China trade war and the global COVID-19 pandemic, the paper will provide valuable insights on the role of trade in improving the food and nutrition security across countries.

Highlights

In 2019, 821.6 million people in the world are hungry and 2 billion people (26.4% of the world’s population) are food and nutrition insecure, who lack access to safe, sufficient and nutritious food, according to the State of Food Security and Nutrition [1]
This paper develops an empirically grounded, relation-driven agent-based global trade model to study the impact of global trade on food and nutrition security of countries across the world
This paper describes the development of an empirical agent-based model of global food trade to study the impact of trade and climate change on food and nutrition security of countries across the world

Summary

Introduction

In 2019, 821.6 million people in the world are hungry and 2 billion people (26.4% of the world’s population) are food and nutrition insecure, who lack access to safe, sufficient and nutritious food, according to the State of Food Security and Nutrition [1]. In addition to the degradation of ecosystems and more frequent crop failures due to climate change [2], recent trade disputes and conflicts among countries, and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic have all posed threat to global food supply and food security [3]. Food production and supply concerns more than the agri-food systems. They are deeply coupled with the social, economic and geopolitical systems at both local and global scales. Using a large-scale simulation model of land-use change, Brown et al [4] show that social and behavioural factors can drastically change local land use and cause severe food shortages of up to 56% without climatic disturbances. Hammond and Dubé [5] argue that food and nutrition security is driven by complex underlying systems at both local and regional/global scales. The authors call for a systems approach using transdisciplinary modelling tools such as system dynamics and agent-based modelling

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