Abstract
The population of the Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna (GBM) delta is highly vulnerable to food insecurity and malnutrition due to the specific environmental, climatic and human development factors affecting agricultural production and fisheries. To better understand the impacts of climate and environmental change on food security and nutrition in this delta, this study combines spatially explicit data from the 2007 and 2011 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) with a standard satellite remotely sensed vegetation greenness index (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI), used as a proxy for rice production. The strength of association between NDVI and child nutrition in this tropical mega-delta were tested, showing correlations between two widely used indicators of child malnutrition; stunting and wasting, and deviations from a 10 year mean NDVI (anomalies) for rice crop growing seasons – regarded as critical to individual children’s early lives. For children surveyed in 2007 we found that the likelihood of being stunted decreased with increased NDVI as a measure of food production. Similarly, for children surveyed in 2011, the likelihood of being wasted reduced with increased NDVI. However, regression results for stunting in 2011 and wasting in 2007 were not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that NDVI can be regarded as indicative of climatic variability and periods of low food production but is only partly successful as an indicator of climate related impacts on child nutrition in the GBM delta. Furthermore, our study highlights some of the uncertainties and challenges with linking environmental indicators such as the NDVI with household survey data across spatial and temporal scales.
Highlights
It is estimated that more than 20% of the global population remains food insecure (FAO, IFAD, and WFP, 2015; Wheeler and von Braun, 2013) and due to a rise in consumption, rapid urban growth and changing population dynamics, food demand may increase by 70% by 2050 (Royal Society, 2009)
The objective of this study was to explore the potential of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an indicator of climatic variability impacts on food availability to explain child nutrition outcomes in the Bangladesh part of the Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna (GBM) delta
The NDVI can be regarded as indicative of climatic variability and periods of low food production. This is an improvement on previous studies such as Shively et al, (2015) where NDVI was not able to observe climatic variability in Nepal
Summary
It is estimated that more than 20% of the global population remains food insecure (FAO, IFAD, and WFP, 2015; Wheeler and von Braun, 2013) and due to a rise in consumption, rapid urban growth and changing population dynamics, food demand may increase by 70% by 2050 (Royal Society, 2009). The challenge of meeting this increased demand is exacerbated by demographic changes, political instabilities, and environmental change, including the impacts of climate change (Poppy et al, 2014) These challenges are pertinent to the densely populated tropical mega deltas of the global south, dubbed the ‘rice bowls’ of the world. Delta areas are vulnerable to food insecurity and malnutrition due the specific environmental, climatic and human development factors affecting agricultural production and fisheries. These include coastal flooding and storm surges, deforestation, changes to river flow patterns and water tables, increased soil salinity and water quality degradation (Foufoula-georgiou et al, 2013). On the coast lies the world’s largest stretch of mangrove forests, the Sundarbans Reserve Forest which is strictly protected
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