Food and Nutrition Policies of African Countries

Global Food Security—Introduction

Preventing Food Crises Using a Food Policy Approach ,

In this paper we challenge the conventional wisdom that the world’s poorest countries are also the most vulnerable to spikes in international food prices. We derive an inverted U-shaped relationship between food price transmission and the development level of a country from a theoretical model. This prediction is subsequently tested in two sets of regressions where economic development is approximated by per capita income and where we control for a number of other potential determinants of food price transmission. The first set of regressions is based on estimated transmission elasticities and the second on actual domestic food price changes during spikes in international food prices. In both sets of regressions we find strong evidence of the existence of an inverted U-shaped relation between food price transmission and income. Thus, food prices in middle income (rather than in low income) countries respond the strongest to changes in international food prices, implying that the poor in these countries are the most exposed to spikes in food prices. We also show that the factors explaining the variation in the estimated transmission elasticities can explain the variation in domestic food price changes during spikes in international food prices equally well.

Since the 2007-08 food crisis, many thoughtful analyses have addressed the causes and impacts of high and volatile international food prices and proposed solutions to the crisis. These studies have covered global as well as local food price dynamics and policy reactions. The food price problem is, however, far-reaching, and its impacts are wide and interrelated. The price formation mechanism has become highly complex and dynamic. Policy actions are politically and economically sensitive. This situation calls for continuous and comprehensive assessments of the problem to provide timely and evidence-based knowledge for policy makers. This paper reviews existing evidence and theories and presents new thoughts and insights from analyses to enlighten the course of actions to be taken. Our review implies that the current body of literature concentrates on high food prices. Commodity price analysis should, however, differentiate between three types of price changes: trends, volatility, and spikes. While price trends are important in the long term, volatility and spikes are more important in the short to medium terms. Descriptive statistics indicate that all three price changes are increasing over time and show strong correlations among themselves. A rising medium-term price trend has triggered extreme short-term price spikes and increased volatility. An assessment of the costs of price volatility has shown that the existing literature follows a conventional marginal-cost approach that considers only few cost components. Direct and immediate components have not been adequately analyzed, and long-term effects have been overlooked. The effect on child nutrition and health is one such long-term effect. Under-nutrition in early childhood has negative consequences for lifetime earnings capacity because of the physical and mental impairment it causes. Economy wide distortions and misallocations also threaten the long-term development of commodity-dependent economies. Measuring and estimating the cost of food price volatility should factor in ongoing processes such as economic growth and technological changes. The supply, demand, and market explanations for high and volatile global prices have been differentiated as exogenous and endogenous factors. To help further identify the drivers of food price changes, they are categorized as root causes, intermediate causes, and immediate causes. Both empirical and theoretical evaluations suggest extreme weather events from the supply side, biofuel production from the demand side, and speculation in commodity futures from the market side are the three most important root causes of observed price volatility. The theoretical and empirical effects of speculation in commodity futures are not yet well understood. However, speculative trading in commodity futures should not be viewed as a random bet that can be smoothed out through the price system. It is important to consider the market and nonmarket contexts that guide the behavioral and strategic choices of speculators. Whereas speculation caused by manipulative, disorderly behaviors and ‘financialization’ are damaging, speculation caused by demand and supply in physical markets can serve as price discovery, liquidity, and risk-hedging mechanisms. Our empirical analysis to quantify the importance of these factors shows that speculation effect is stronger than demand- and supply-side shocks for short term price spikes. Overall policy interventions at global, regional, and local levels should concentrate on reducing price spikes and protecting poor people from short- and long-term crises. The viii formulation and implementation of such policies must be supported with timely information and research-based evidence. A comprehensive portfolio of policy actions is proposed here, rather than over-extended individual measures to address the root causes or over-regulation of markets to address volatility and spikes. Evaluation of policy instruments should weigh the true costs associated with both, action versus inaction. Research must focus on developing price and food security indicators and models that will guide policy implementation also in the short run. Such models are currently missing.

Aggregate estimates of food expenditure are consistent with such a possibility, implying income/expenditure elasticities close to one. However, the high degree of aggregation at which such estimates are made means that the considerable increase in price per nutrient as income increases is ignored, and the nutrient elasticities are therefore overstated. Estimates for a rural south Indian sample indicate that this bias is considerable and that the true nutrient elasticities with respect to income may be close to zero.

The complex interrelationships of price policy and income distribution are analyzed, beginning with the simple effects of changes in food prices as they are reflected in consumer-budget data and consumption patterns and the effects on producers of different income levels. The analysis progresses to a more complex study of the effect on agricultural technology and production and on employment in non-agricultural areas. The impact is shown to be greatest on low-income groups, whose economic condition also has the greatest impact on food demand. Secondary impacts on employment and income of low-income groups also result from changes in the real income of high-income consumers as prices change. On the basis of this analysis, the author suggests food-pricing policies that will encourage technological change in agriculture and employment growth in industry.

Beside the mixed evidences on transmission of international food price volatility to local markets and the desirability or otherwise of reliance on stabilisation policy to cushion the effects, very little is known about the key drivers of price spikes and volatility in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper is an attempt to bridge this gap, by focusing on the patterns, drivers, and policy responses to food price spikes and volatility across in Nigeria. The study was based on 16 years panel data on average monthly prices (2001:1 – 2016:12) of major food commodities across local markets in the 36 States of Nigeria, supplemented with monthly series of relevant domestic policy variables, and international prices, among other factors. Data analysis was mainly within the framework of fixed effects models. Findings suggest that food price upsurges in an average Nigeria market is more strongly related to spikes than volatility. International factors such as crude oil price, international food prices, and global beginning stock to use of coarse grains, and domestic policy variables such as real exchange rates, monetary policy rates and narrow money are strong influencers of spikes in the price of one or more food commodities in Nigeria’s local markets. Higher petrol price and food production variability may substantially advance price instability in local food markets. Government policy actions at addressing volatile food prices immediately after the 2007/2008 food crises appeared to enhance food price stability. These findings call for greater attention on management of monetary policy, including the exchange rates, ensuring stable petrol price, limiting food production instability, mitigating spill-over of price upsurges from international markets and building farmers and consumer’s resilience against food price changes, among others, as important pathways to address short and medium-term food price upsurges.

The purpose of the study is to assess the effects of COVID-19 induced spike in food prices on urban households’ food security status in Northwest, Nigeria. Primary data through structured questionnaires were collected for the study. A multistage random sampling resulted into sample size of 240 urban households (samples). Primary data was used for the study. The results of variables used for the fixed effect regression shows that the mean price was ₦200, average household size was 7 persons per household, the average age and education was 45 and 10 years, respectively. The results of price trend before and during COVID-19 pandemic shows significant differences in all the four (4) cereal crops investigated. The result of the food security levels of households reveals that majority of the households (95%) were food secure before the outbreak of COVID-19 while the food secure households dropped to78% during COVID-19. The fixed-effects regression shows that the coefficients of price (1.05), household size (0.02), COVID-19 loan (-0.134e-7) and household income (0.015) were found to have statistically significant effects on food security status of households. The findings from this study will help guide governments at various levels in Nigeria in policy formulation towards ameliorating the sufferings of households in the study area. In addition, NGOs and other concerned local and international organisations can rely on this study as a guide for distributing COVID-19 relief find and further research.

跨国土地利用及其生态影响研究

It is anticipated that by 2050, the global human population will reach nine billion (Rosegrant et al. 2009). Along with population growth, socio-economic shifts and changing dietary patterns will require global food production to double in the next 40 years to accommodate increasing levels of consumption (Sposito 2013). Most population growth will take place in developing countries, which is also where food insecurity is most prevalent. The growing demand for food production also creates challenges with respect to water resources. A total of 70–85 percent of available freshwater is used for agricultural production (Rosegrant et al. 2009; Nordin et al. 2013), and increased demand for food will exacerbate issues related to the degradation and depletion of water resources (Nordin et al. 2013). In line with these facts, the narrative surrounding food security is predominantly focused on increasing yields while ensuring sufficient water to do so. Some have argued that the 2008 and 2011 global spikes in food and oil prices initiated the entire ‘water-energy-food nexus’ discussion. In this discussion, these three ‘systems’ are said to be inextricably linked (http://www.unwater.org/topics/water-food-and-energy-nexus/en/). While this is true, the globalized nature of this discourse means that it is overwhelmingly dominated by powerful states and private sector actors, each fundamentally interested in the financial costs (and possible profits) of efforts to achieve energy, food and water ‘security’ (Clapp 2012). Efforts to increase food security through ‘production’ have resulted in myriad pathological practices, the most pernicious of which may be land-grabbing across the Global South (Swatuk 2017).

G lobal food security has been a hot topic since the large spike in world food prices in 2008. Between 2006 and 2008, global food prices rose by 60 per cent. The spike is estimated to have increased by 100 million the number of people considered to be ‘food insecure’. Demonstrations and riots occurred in more than 30 countries across the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America, and in Haiti food riots led to the toppling of the prime minister. Global food prices eased following the Great Crash of 2008. The easing was brief. Prices again surged in 2010 and have risen to new heights in the first months of 2011. They were one factor behind political unrest in the Middle East in the Australian summer of 2010–11. One long-term source of upward pressure on food prices has been strong growth in demand for high-quality food with economic growth in China and other successful developing countries, recently reinforced by climatic disruption in China and South Asia. The high food prices over the past year have been driven also by an unusual range of other severe climatic events affecting global agriculture: dry conditions in the United States; floods in Australia, Canada, Pakistan and Brazil; dry conditions in Argentina; and high temperatures, drought and wildfires in Russia. Once world grain prices started to rise strongly, the increase was exacerbated by a number of countries, most importantly Russia in the recent episode, seeking to enhance their own food security by restricting exports of grain.

The 2008 price and more recent spikes in food prices have led to a greater focus on policies and programs to cushion their impact on poverty and malnutrition. Estimating the income elasticity of micro-nutrients and assessing how they change during such crises is an important part of the policy debate as it affects the effectiveness of cash transfer and nutritional supplementation programs. This paper assesses these issues using data from two cross-sectional household surveys in Indonesia carried out before and soon after the 1997/98 economic crisis, which led to a sharp increase in food prices. First, the authors examine how the income elasticity of the starchy staple ratio differs between the two survey rounds using non-parametric as well as regression methods. Second, they provide updated estimates of the income elasticity for important nutrients in Indonesia. The analysis finds that (i) summary measures such as the income elasticity of the starchy staple ratio may not change during crises but this masks important differences across specific nutrients; (ii) methods matter -- the ordinary least squares estimates for the income elasticity of micro-nutrients are likely to be misleading due to measurement error bias; (iii) controlling for measurement error, the income elasticity of some key micro-nutrients, such as iron, calcium, and vitamin B1, is significantly higher in the crisis year compared with a normal year; and (iv) the income elasticity for certain micro-nutrients -- vitamin C in this case -- remains close to zero. These results suggest that cash transfer programs may be even more effective during crises to protect the consumption of many essential micro-nutrients compared with non-crisis periods but in order to ensure that all micro-nutrients are consumed, specific nutritional supplementation programs are also likely to be required.

Food prices are indeed a mechanism that links obesity and poverty.1 As incomes decrease, energy-dense grains, sweets, and fats become the best way to provide daily calories at a manageable cost.2 Added sugars and fats can be inexpensive, flavorful, satisfying, readily accessible, and convenient,3 but these ingredients can also provide minimal nutritional value. One factor behind rising obesity rates may be lower diet cost.4 In the United States, the most obese neighborhoods are those with low residential property values, few amenities, and high poverty rates.5 Richer and better educated people live in wealthier areas, shop at upscale supermarkets, enjoy high quality diets, and are more likely to be thin and healthy.6 Less food-secure people with lower incomes shop at lower-cost supermarkets, search for bargains, and may be driven by economic necessity to select lower-quality diets. Obesity in America is largely a socioeconomic issue.7 A rise in food prices caused by climate change will lead to higher, not lower, obesity rates in the United States. The spikes in food prices observed in 2008 and again in 2010 were highest for the healthier foods, particularly vegetables and fruit.8 The current drought conditions have damaged crops and will lead to food-price increases in 2013, especially for dairy, eggs, and meat. As food prices continue to increase, refined grains, added sugars, and vegetable fats will replace healthier options, first for the poor and later for the middle class. Cereal and oilseed crops, not meat or dairy, account for most of the calories in the global food supply. Corn, wheat, rice, soy, and sugar cane are all staples that yield inexpensive dietary energy and provide fat, refined carbohydrates, and protein. Energy, land, and water resources for many other crops are becoming scarce, leading to justifiable concerns about hunger and food security worldwide. We agree that the potential impact of climate change on global nutrition would benefit from a more detailed analysis.9 Fortifying global staples with vitamins and minerals to assure high nutrient density at a low cost is an approach adopted by the Gates Foundation and the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition among others. Assuring genetic biodiversity by promoting traditional and local plants is a theme adopted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.10 A focus on nutrition, water, and rural development has characterized some food industry efforts. These and other options would benefit from sustained informed debate on global nutrition economics, obesity, and health.

Africa’s Development Corridors as Pathways to Agricultural Development, Regional Economic Integration and Food Security in Africa

The world food problem is an economic fact that can lead to significant political consequences. Many experts believe that a spike in food prices is at the root of world revolutions and catastrophes. For example, in the Middle East and Africa, the poor spend about 50 per cent of their income on food, which means that rising prices of basic foodstuffs guarantee an incredibly high impact on household expenditure. At the heart of the global food problem, recurrent food crises, is the advancement of research results in the agro-industrial sector, which prevents the reduction of food prices, even when technical advances make it possible to increase yields in these countries. The current food problem in the development of mankind is that due to irrational and over-intensive use of natural resources, increasing demand for livestock products, increasing per capita food consumption, as well as other factors, there is a steady increase in food prices, which contributes to the emergence of threats to food security in developing countries, including the poorest populations of developed and developing countries. In addition to the above, the problem of adulterated products, the growing trend of popularisation of ‘harmful’ products, the increasing rate of sales of products made with the use of GMOs, and in these conditions, ensuring the safety of food and food raw materials becomes the primary task of the state, as these factors affect the life and health of the population, the preservation of the gene pool of the nation.