Abstract

In this research, a new compartment model of honey bee population is developed to study the effects of gradual change of food availability and environmental degradation on bee population growth and development. The model is proved to be mathematical well posed and a non-trivial equilibrium point is shown to exist and asymptotically stable under certain conditions. The model predicts a critical threshold environmental degradation rate above which the population size of bees decline and subsequently collapse. Low environmental degradation and high food availability leads to stable bee population. Global sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive parameters of the model that can lead to colony collapse disorder. Numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate all the results.

Highlights

  • In this research, a new compartment model of honey bee population is developed to study the effects of gradual change of food availability as a result of environmental degradation on bee population growth and development

  • The eggs hatched to larvae which are sealed in the cell with wax cap by the worker bees where they developed into pupae

  • In Torres and Torres [28], a die immediately. They are slightly smaller than the queen and mathematical model was developed of a honey bee colony with larger than the worker bees

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Summary

Numerical simulations

Numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate analytical and other results. When the environment degradation parameter μ is increased to 0.047, the bees population start to decline in just 100 days and the colony collapsed (C.C.D. occurred) in about 270 days. The simulation is run for 500 days with 1.8 × 104kg of initial total food It can be observed from the figure that when μ = 0.043 (mild effect), the food grows in abundance. It can be observed that μ and λ are the most influential parameters followed by m and c in that order

Global sensitivity analysis
Discussion and concluding remarks
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